Tuesday, March 24, 2015

First Taste Of Severe Weather This Year

Our first taste of spring thunderstorm activity will be here Tuesday evening and again Wednesday evening.  This will not be anything major, but there will be a threat for wind and hail.  As always, you can never rule out an isolated tornado this time of year, but that threat is very much on the low end.

The Storm Prediction Center recently started adding categories to describe the threat for severe thunderstorms and it's something I strongly disagree with.  It goes back to the old rule, "less is more".  At KATV, we will continue to use the the old threat scale: slight, moderate, and high.  They have added marginal and enhanced.  In my opinion, it's great for those who are weather geeks like me, but in terms of a public forecast, it just adds more confusion.  If you feel differently, let me know in the poll to the right.  Keep the old categorical scale or use the new categorical scale?

Here is their new scale...

More information on this categorical outlook:    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dy1-3example/

Here is one we'll be using....

The following model maps are courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics

A slow moving front to the north will have waves of low pressure moving along it.  The first one arrives this Tuesday evening and will mainly have an impact on NW Arkansas.  A few storms will develop.  As the low lifts away and instability decreases, the storms will decrease as they move south.
HiRes simulated radar shows the storms at around 9PM Tuesday.
Storms decrease later in the evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed NW Arkansas under a "slight risk" for severe weather late Tuesday.

The next wave of low pressure moves along the front late Wednesday.  This will finally shove the front towards the south as it leaves and this will introduce much colder air.

Slight risk late Wednesday

Monday, March 23, 2015

Spring Storms, Then Mother Nature Gives Us The Cold Shoulder

It's going to be one of those wild weeks in Arkansas weather.  We have a couple nice days, then the chance for some rough weather.  I'm not expecting a major severe weather event, but a few strong and possibly severe storms will be possible.

The front bringing the storms will be the transition to a MUCH colder weather pattern.  I hope you have not planted yet.  The major long range models (GFS and EURO) differ on how cold it will get Friday and Saturday morning.  This video goes over all of it for you.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Severe Weather Season. Thoughts and Forecast

It has been quite awhile since I updated the blog.   Sorry for that.  I have been working on a presentation I'm giving at the National Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference in Iowa.  They asked me to present on the Mayflower/Vilonia tornado from last April 27th.

As I go through all the data and look at our coverage from that night, it really makes me think about things we need to work on.  What really strikes me is the immediacy of social media and the reluctance I had that night to use photos at first.

We were getting pictures sent to us via twitter of the damage in Mayflower seconds after it hit.  At that time, we knew we had a tornado on the ground, but we didn't know the size and the scope of the situation.  I don't think anyone knew early that night it was a wedge tornado (a violent tornado that is wider than it is tall).  I thought someone was sending me fake pictures on twitter.  I could not believe what I was seeing.  Just a few weeks prior to the tornado, we had a problem with fake flooding pictures floating around social media.  These are the things we must deal with in a life and death situation.  Social media is a fantastic resource for information, but it also allows some to post images that may not be real or were taken from many years ago from somewhere else.

This brings up a very, very important topic that must be addressed as we go into severe weather season.  PLEASE KNOW WHO YOU ARE FOLLOWING ON SOCIAL MEDIA!  There are so many people out there now who think they know what they are talking about, but in reality, they don't.   I hate to have to say that, but it's true.  They hide behind titles and they do not use their names.  That should automatically raise suspicions.  Some may know what they are talking about, but others do not.   How do you know what kind of experience or education they have?  Ask questions!  For example, when we had that big winter weather event a couple weeks ago, prior to it, there were rumors floating around social media that it was going to be the Christmas 2012 storm all over again and many would lose electricity.   I was asked this numerous times, but didn't respond.  All I can do is stand by my forecast and the one made by Channel 7.

I think some of these pop up twitter accounts with no names attached to them are run by aspiring meteorologists.  I can actually relate to them.  I wanted to be a meteorologist since I was 6 years old.  If twitter and facebook was available then, I would have been all over it.  I do not want them to stop.  They are passionate about the weather and that's a good thing.  I just hope the ones behind these accounts are more open about who they are so no one is confused when we do encounter life and death situations.

Will this be an active severe weather season?  That's a great question.  Last year was very quiet with the exception of 1 storm and that's all it takes... ONE STORM!  We are off to another slow start, but I hear from very experienced long range forecasters who are saying this will be a very active season starting in April and lasting into May.  Their reasoning is based on science. One of those forecasters is Joe Bastardi with Weatherbell Analytics.  His seasonal forecasting has been very, very good over the past few years.

We have above average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico which could add more fuel to the atmosphere.  Also, it is possible for  the trough over the eastern and central United States to retrograde more to the west which would put this region in a more active pattern.  Coming up soon here on the Arkansas Weather Blog, I will have more about this forecast and hopefully talk to Joe about his thoughts on this upcoming spring and summer.

As for my presentation, I can't promise this, but I'm going to try to stream it live here on the blog.  So look for that next week.  I will also do a special presentation here on the blog once I get back.