Tuesday, August 19, 2014

100 Degrees In Sight?

I said there's a 70 percent chance we will not hit 100 degrees this summer and my optimism may go down in flames... literally.  It's going to get hot... REAL HOT late this week into the beginning of next week before any sort of cool down can occur.

IF we hit 100 degrees, it will be the 2nd latest first 100 degree day in Little Rock weather history.  The first latest 100 degree day is September 6th, 1922.   Hopefully the models are running a little too hot with their output and that has been the case this summer.  Also, any moisture in the ground will also slow the ascent to triple digit heat.  No matter what, the heat index will be outrageous this week.  That "feels like" temperature will be around 105 degrees or higher and heat advisories may be required. 

The models are hinting at some tropical development later next week in the Gulf of Mexico.  The Tuesday overnight run of the GFS brought a hurricane up into the northern Gulf and then the next run shifted it further into the eastern Gulf.  Bottom line, don't hang your hat on any one solution, but let's watch this.   We are going into the most active time of the year for tropical storms/hurricanes.  It's wayyyyyy too early to say if anything will develop and if it does, where it will go.

Below are maps from weatherbell.com


GFS temperatures just off the surface Friday high temperatures may be near 100.

Highs Saturday afternoon will get very close to 100 degrees.  Remember, the heat index will be around 105 or higher.
Sunday's highs (August 25th) could be right at 100 degrees.
Monday looks like a sizzler too with triple digit heat according to this model.
And next Tuesday could be horrible too. 
The GFS on Tuesday August 26th into the 27th shows an impressive tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.  DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY!  THIS WILL CHANGE!  It's impossible to predict something like this when it's a week away.  Just know we're watching for possible development and check back!

Friday, August 15, 2014

"Death and Destructin. A Cyclone of Gigantic Proportions Strikes The City of Little Rock."



As many of you know, I love reading and studying Arkansas weather history.  This is the main reason I developed the "Arkansas Weather" app.  I recently discovered the local National Weather Service has been hit 3 times by tornadoes, one of which occurred on October 2nd, 1894. The track was right through downtown Little Rock and very close to where the KATV building is now.

The event was front page headlines the next day in the Arkansas Gazette and it's reported with amazing detail.  I found the story on microfilm and had to zoom in and cut it up into several different images to make it readable.  I hope it all makes sense and I have it in the right order.  Enjoy.  It's fascinating!!!!!  

REMEMBER, THIS WAS WRITTEN IN 1894 AND SOME OF THE LANGUAGE USED IS NOT ACCEPTABLE. 














Thursday, August 14, 2014

Cold and Snowy Winter Possible

I'm back! I apologize for not blogging lately and not updating social media much.  I took my family down to Seagrove, Florida, for a beach vacation.  I'll be honest with you, I'm not much of a beach person.  This really shouldn't come as a surprise since I love snow and cold weather.  As many of you know, when you have kids, it's about them.  Blake LOVES the sand and the water.  I think he might become a beach bum one of these days.  If he could play on the beach all day, we would.  And at night, no crab is safe.  If Blake can't catch a crab, he'll tackle it.  I'm not kidding.  Don't misunderstand me, I like the beach and I enjoyed it.  However, if I had the option between snow skiing in Montana or the Bahamas, Montana would win every single time.

As many of you know, meteorologist Joe Bastardi with weatherbell.com issued a winter forecast for 2014-2015 last spring.  He was recently interviewed by the Wall Street Journal about it and he continues to stand by his forecast for a colder and snowier winter for our region of the country.  As you know, I'm not a big fan of long range forecasts, but this guy has been spot-on for a long time now.  He was one of the very few who predicted the cold and snowy winter of 2013-2014 and since then he has been on a streak.  He nailed this summer too.  When a guy has a handle on what's going on in the atmosphere and oceans, you listen.  In case you missed the video, I have it below.  He is comparing this winter to the winters of 2002/2003 and 2009/2010.  It's very important to remember what happened in those winters will NOT happen exactly as it did this winter, but there should be obvious similarities.  Also below I'm providing you a look at total snowfall those winters and daily temperatures as well.  I CAN'T WAIT!  BRING ON THE COLD AND SNOW!!!!!  My thoughts are below all the maps and graphics.


TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER OF 2002/2003







TOTAL SNOWFALL METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2009/2010


IN SUMMARY, EVERY MONTH, EXCEPT DECEMBER 2002 HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE.  EVEN THAT DECEMBER WAS ONLY .1 DEGREE ABOVE.  THOSE JANUARY'S AND FEBRUARY'S FOR BOTH WINTERS HAD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

AS YOU CAN SEE BY SNOWFALL, IT WAS VERY SNOWY.  WE'LL WAIT AND SEE HOW ALL THIS PLAYS OUT, BUT AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING SINCE LAST WINTER, SCHOOLS NEED TO BUILD IN MORE SNOW DAYS INTO THEIR CALENDARS.