Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Hot-Tober to Novem-BRRRRR



As of Tuesday, October 28th, we are almost 3 degrees above average for the month of October.  This is only the 2nd month over the past year with above average temperatures.  I can't tell you how November will end, but I can tell you it's going to start off very chilly.  It's really amazing how fast things can change around here.  Last weekend I was talking about a heat index and we may have a wind chill reading this weekend. Our average first frost for many locations around the state usually occurs around the end of October or the beginning of November so we're right on schedule.

The other big weather story we need to follow over the next few days are the rain chances Tuesday (Election Day).  The models all show a front coming through the state, but the differ on timing and intensity.  The newest version of the GFS moves it through here Tuesday and is faster than previous runs.  With that said, it still shows significant amounts of rain on Election Day.

Don't forget to fall back one hour this Saturday night as daylight saving time ends.  It's also a good idea to change the battery in your smoke detector.  With the cold air coming, make sure your heater is working properly and you have a carbon monoxide detector.

Onto the maps...

The GFS seems a little too cold lately, but I guess it's within the realm of possibilities.  Look at these 7PM temperatures Halloween!  30s north to mid 40s central and upper 40s south.  It will be dry.
Once again, I wonder if the GFS is just a little too cold, but it shows widespread 20s west and northwest Saturday morning with lower 30s elsewhere.  NOVEM-BRRRRRRR


7AM wind chill readings according to the GFS should be in the mid and upper 20s Saturday morning! WOW!
The GFS shows more than half an inch of rain between midnight and 6AM Tuesday as a front moves into the state.  This model run is faster than some of the previous runs.

Between 6AM and noon Election Day, the rain amounts will be confined to the SE half of the state according to this one model run.  It's too early to pinpoint exact timing.
Between noon and 6PM Tuesday, the rain moves away, but there's still some across the southeast.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Cool Ghouls, First Frost, and Election Day Wet Weather



Put a fork in the 80 degree + weather for awhile.  It's done!  There may be frost on the pumpkin this weekend as the coldest air mass so far this season descends upon the state.  We're going to go from using the A/C to using the heater this weekend.  We'll also go from having a heat index to a wind chill as well.  The temperature difference between highs last weekend and next weekend could be as great as 30 degrees.  The first frost of the season may be likely for many and there could even be freezing temperatures across the far north Saturday and Sunday morning.  Don't forget to fall back one hour Saturday night/Sunday morning as daylight saving time comes to an end.

Now onto Election Day.  It's still a week away from the time I'm writing this post and there are obvious model differences which is to be expected.  The Euro moves through front and rain through here during the first half of next Tuesday while the GFS stalls the front and precip across the northwestern half of the state most of next Tuesday.  At this point, it's too early to predict the speed of the front and the exact timing of all this.  However, both of the models do show a descent potential for rainfall.

The maps from the European model are courtesy of weatherbell.com

These are forecast temperatures on Friday at 7PM according to the European model.  It shows 40s north and 50s central/south.  There may even be a wind chill temperature for some!  It should also be dry.
Look at the forecast lows from the European Saturday morning.  It could be at or below freezing across the north and in the mid 30s central and south.  If the winds diminish enough, a frost will be likely.
By Sunday morning, the cold air mass is slowly easing to the east, but it's still cold with widespread 30s across the state.
This is the forecast surface map next Tuesday (Election Day).  The front is off to the northwest at 6AM with a good chance for rain along and ahead of it.  Look at the cold area of high pressure along the east coast.  The back side of this is feeding moisture into the state from the Gulf.
This is the European valid at noon next Tuesday.  It has the front moving through the state faster than the GFS.  The blobs indicate rainfall amounts between 6AM and noon Tuesday.  You can see how the heavist amounts are located across SE portions of the state according to this model.   As I said above, it's way too early to get specific and this will change. 
The GFS from 6AM to noon Election Day shows the heaviest rainfall across the west and the north so you see the differences in the models, but both indicate the potential for rain.  The forecast will become clearer by the weekend and I'll keep you updated.

Friday, October 24, 2014

First Frost May Not Be Too Far Away



This video goes over the next week in weather according to the European model.  We could get within a few degrees of daily record highs this weekend.  A cold front will bring us back to reality by the middle of next week and Halloween could be a bit chilly and some could have their first frost which would be quite normal for the beginning of November.