Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Record Rain

While a few showers will be possible Thanksgiving, especially over western Arkansas, the rain will become likely Friday and Saturday.  This may even extend into Sunday.

The Razorback game weather in Fayetteville will be brutal.  Temperatures falling through the 40s with heavy rainfall.  Remember, it could always be worse.  The Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma game in Stillwater Saturday evening will be even colder with rain possibly changing to ice.  That should be interesting to watch on Channel 7.

Remember I said to follow the Euro with temperatures Saturday.  I just looked at the newest run of the GFS  this morning and it's backing way off those 60s.  It may be close to 60 at midnight, but those readings will fall during the rest of the day.

Now onto the rainfall.  Little Rock has had 5.25'' so far this month and we could double that by early next week.  This could propel us into the top 10 wettest November's on record.

In west Little Rock, the monthly total so far is 7.61''.

Here are the top 10 wettest November's in Little Rock weather history.
  1. 2011 - 14.57''
  2. 1988 - 13.14''
  3. 2000 - 10.99''
  4. 1987 - 10.96''
  5. 1889 - 10.20''
  6. 1982 - 9.72''
  7. 2004 - 9.66''
  8. 1957 - 9.54''
  9. 1977 - 9.34''
  10. 1973 - 9.03''
I find it interesting that 5 of the top 10 wettest November's have all occurred since 1987.  This helps answer the question why November is our wettest month on average.  Those are 30 year averages which determine that and all those are years are included in that calculation.

Here are the model projections which should launch us into that record territory.


Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Thanksgiving Weekend Forecasting Headache

I think it's a given we're going to have rain and plenty of it.  Once again flooding will be a concern.  I think Thanksgiving will be mostly dry with a few light showers mainly over western Arkansas.

The forecasting headaches begin Friday and really push into Saturday.  The GFS and Euro disagree on frontal placement and that plays a huge role in forecasting temperatures.  One GFS model run had the front through central Arkansas and temperatures only in the 40s Saturday and now the newest run has us in the 60s.  What about the Euro?  I go over all that in this very detailed video.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Thanksgiving Weather And Beyond

Lots going on over the next week or two weather wise and that's very important considering we have the busiest travel day of the year coming up, Thanksgiving, shopping, and trying to get into the Christmas spirit!

As we first told you, a freeze is expected this weekend, but there could be even colder air down the road, plus another warm up.  It's all in this video

Also, I address the upcoming winter weather contest.