While not a huge outbreak, I do expect strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Much cooler and drier air will move in Monday.
This video goes over specific timing and threats.
|The timing of this will not be perfect, but this is what we're expecting at this point. Remember, as this evolves, things can change. Look for a line of storms to develop late Sunday afternoon and evening. This is simulated radar at 7PM Sunday.|
|This is CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) Sunday at 7PM. This is the instability, the fuel for thunderstorms. The levels are above 3000 for some locations which is plenty for strong to severe weather.|
|By 10PM, the line is past the metro and moving into south central and east central Arkansas.|
|By 1AM Monday, the line is across southeast Arkansas and getting ready to cross the Mississippi River.|
|The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Arkansas in an area with the greatest threat for severe weather. This is all late Sunday with the line we're expecting to develop.|
|We'll have a medium threat for wind and hail, which is typical with a line of storms. The tornado threat is there, but is low. This is still subject to change.|
|The NOAA 6-10 day outlook indicates a good chance for below average temperatures.|
|It doesn't change in the 8-14 day outlook. The average high is well into the 70s, but should be below average for awhile.|
|5 day rainfall totals will be significant. Since this is spread out over the entire week, flooding concerns are not too high at this time. However, you see how active the weather will become.|
|By next Tuesday, April 21st, you can see the ridge poking up into western Canada and a strong trough developing over the central United States. This will put a big dent in any widespread severe weather chances and keep it cooler than average.|
|NOAA's 8-14 day outlook indicates a good chance for below average temperatures. Notice where the above average temperatures will be located... underneath that ridge!|