Cloudy Skies With Storms In Our Future...
April 16,2013
It's warm this morning under cloudy skies. Clouds will be with us today but temps will be warming into the low 80s so all in all, not a bad day.
The severe weather threat looks to move north for today into KS/MO and arcing back into OK/TX. Not looking for much in AR at this time, but on Wednesday chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to go up as moisture continues to move into AR from the south and a frontal system to our west interacts with upper disturbances. The best chances of rain on Wed are in the west and north.
Wed night into Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will move across the state. It appears a squall line will form in OK late Wed and move into AR on Thursday. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging wind the main threat. At this time...we're not looking for a tornado outbreak, although cannot rule them out, this looks like one line of storms sweeping across the state. Stay tuned as things can change.
The severe weather threat looks to move north for today into KS/MO and arcing back into OK/TX. Not looking for much in AR at this time, but on Wednesday chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to go up as moisture continues to move into AR from the south and a frontal system to our west interacts with upper disturbances. The best chances of rain on Wed are in the west and north.
Wed night into Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will move across the state. It appears a squall line will form in OK late Wed and move into AR on Thursday. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging wind the main threat. At this time...we're not looking for a tornado outbreak, although cannot rule them out, this looks like one line of storms sweeping across the state. Stay tuned as things can change.
Behind the front, much cooler air will come into AR. We could be looking at some record lows for this time of year Friday and Saturday morning in some parts of the state. Temps will begin to warm back up late in the weekend, before a new cold front approaches AR early next week. The Climate Prediction Center's outlook keeps chances of below normal temps going well into next week.
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30 am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on Facebook:WeatherNinja. My new website weatherninja.net will be up soon and you can watch my stormchasing live stream on my webpage, the AR Weather Blog or on Chasertv.com
More Severe Weather This Week ??
April 13, 2013
As mentioned yesterday, a couple of upper level disturbances will be working through in the upper flow and will being some cloudiness to the state during the weekend. Clouds and a few light showers are noted this morning as disturbance number one moves by. We'll have a mix of clouds and sunshine with spring like temps. Another disturbance will move to the south of AR on Sunday and may spread cloudiness to the southern part of the state with most of the showers/storms remaining to the south of AR.
A cold front will move towards AR on Monday but will stall out for a few days as high pressure in the SE US will block its forward movement. By Wednesday a low pressure center may form on the front and working with a western trough, may kick it through the state. While the front is stalled out, disturbances riding along the front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in NW AR. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a few of these storms could possibly become severe with damaging wind/hail being the main threat.
A cold front will move towards AR on Monday but will stall out for a few days as high pressure in the SE US will block its forward movement. By Wednesday a low pressure center may form on the front and working with a western trough, may kick it through the state. While the front is stalled out, disturbances riding along the front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in NW AR. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a few of these storms could possibly become severe with damaging wind/hail being the main threat.
As we get into the week, SPC expands the severe weather threat to a large part of AR by Wednesday. We could see some additional heavy rain along with severe weather Tuesday in NW/Western AR and statewide on Wed.
Once the front moves through, it looks like another pretty stout blast of colder air coming that will lower our high temps back down into the 60's by end of the week.
Here is the 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period April 18-22
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30 am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on Facebook:WeatherNinja. My new website weatherninja.net will be up soon and you can watch my stormchasing live stream on my webpage, the AR Weather Blog or on Chasertv.com
Wet Saturday Morning....
March 30, 2013
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| LR radar scan at 8:45 am Saturday morning |
The weather word for this morning is "WET" especially if you are in central and southern AR. As mentioned the last couple of days, we will continue to see rainfall with little disturbances moving through in the upper atmosphere. The current rainfall associated with a stalled frontal system across southern AR and an upper level impulse will continue to move across the state this morning. The rainfall should decrease by this afternoon but scattered showers/storms can't be ruled out.
Another round of rain will come in tonight and move across the state. If the timing holds, then the majority of the rain should be in southern AR during the morning on Easter Sunday...but once again, even if the bulk of the rain was in the southern half, still cant' rule out a shower, so if you're going to sunrise services, you should check the radar and plan accordingly. Easter afternoon looks like it might be dry and we may see sunshine with temps in the low 70's.
There could be a few severe thunderstorms across western AR tonight as the next system moves out of OK/TX. The main threat with any storms would be large hail.
Another round of rain will come in tonight and move across the state. If the timing holds, then the majority of the rain should be in southern AR during the morning on Easter Sunday...but once again, even if the bulk of the rain was in the southern half, still cant' rule out a shower, so if you're going to sunrise services, you should check the radar and plan accordingly. Easter afternoon looks like it might be dry and we may see sunshine with temps in the low 70's.
There could be a few severe thunderstorms across western AR tonight as the next system moves out of OK/TX. The main threat with any storms would be large hail.
A cold front is still on track to move through the state Monday/Monday night bringing one more blast of colder weather. That front looks to stall south of AR and moisture moving northward mid week could bring some additional rainfall. If we have clouds around, I don't think we'll see freezing temps in southern/central AR but the north may still see some. The models have backed off any snow accumulations for northern AR in the latest runs. Still plenty of time to watch that.
For those tired of the cool spring weather (many are and have told me) here is the latest 8-14 day outlook April 8 - 14. Looks much better with normal to above normal temps.
For those tired of the cool spring weather (many are and have told me) here is the latest 8-14 day outlook April 8 - 14. Looks much better with normal to above normal temps.
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
Warmer, wetter, then colder!
March 28, 2013
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| Possible rainfall amounts Thursday - Sunday |
Warmer...wetter...then colder....
That pretty much sums up the weather in AR for the next week or so. We'll start out with clouds increasing today but temps will warm well into the 60's. Rain chances start to increase tonight as a frontal system moves into the state. The front will stall in some part of AR (probably central) and little disturbances will work along the front, each one bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather looks low with this pattern, but the threat for heavy rain looks higher as we'll be in this pattern through Easter Sunday. Rainfall amounts at this point look to be highest in the northern half of the state where amounts in excess of 2" could fall. Rainfall in the southern half still could be well over an inch.
Temps will warm on southerly winds and readings will be boosted into the upper 60's and low 70's over the weekend and on Monday, but then......an arctic cold front will come barreling through the state bringing us back into the cool (or cold) pattern that we've been in lately. With the cold air in place there could be a rain/snow mix or light snow event across far northern AR Monday night into early Tuesday. They've had snow in April before, but it has been a few years.
I've already lost my bet with Todd Yakoubian on a late March freeze and it looks like we could see additional freezing temps early next week. In fact, some of the data provided by the NWS in NLR, suggests that we could come close to some record lows in the state. For LR the record for Tuesday April 2nd is 30 degrees, 30 on Wednesday, and 29 on Thursday. Models aren't forecasting lows that low yet, but they are very close so we'll have to watch that. Lows in northern AR could easily get into the low to mid 20s.
I had the opportunity to speak to people last night at the Museum of Discovery Science After Dark in Little Rock. They had an "Extreme Weather" theme going. I was there to discuss storm chasing with anyone who wanted information. I finally met Ed Buckner. Hard to believe I've been involved with weather in the state for many years but had never actually met Ed. Very nice guy and truly passionate about AR weather.
If you've never been to the Science After Dark at the MOD, they have it the last Wednesday of each month. $5 will get you in the door (adults only) and you get to check out all the things they have at the museum and interact with whatever theme they have going that night. It was really neat and I'll be back for sure.
That pretty much sums up the weather in AR for the next week or so. We'll start out with clouds increasing today but temps will warm well into the 60's. Rain chances start to increase tonight as a frontal system moves into the state. The front will stall in some part of AR (probably central) and little disturbances will work along the front, each one bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather looks low with this pattern, but the threat for heavy rain looks higher as we'll be in this pattern through Easter Sunday. Rainfall amounts at this point look to be highest in the northern half of the state where amounts in excess of 2" could fall. Rainfall in the southern half still could be well over an inch.
Temps will warm on southerly winds and readings will be boosted into the upper 60's and low 70's over the weekend and on Monday, but then......an arctic cold front will come barreling through the state bringing us back into the cool (or cold) pattern that we've been in lately. With the cold air in place there could be a rain/snow mix or light snow event across far northern AR Monday night into early Tuesday. They've had snow in April before, but it has been a few years.
I've already lost my bet with Todd Yakoubian on a late March freeze and it looks like we could see additional freezing temps early next week. In fact, some of the data provided by the NWS in NLR, suggests that we could come close to some record lows in the state. For LR the record for Tuesday April 2nd is 30 degrees, 30 on Wednesday, and 29 on Thursday. Models aren't forecasting lows that low yet, but they are very close so we'll have to watch that. Lows in northern AR could easily get into the low to mid 20s.
I had the opportunity to speak to people last night at the Museum of Discovery Science After Dark in Little Rock. They had an "Extreme Weather" theme going. I was there to discuss storm chasing with anyone who wanted information. I finally met Ed Buckner. Hard to believe I've been involved with weather in the state for many years but had never actually met Ed. Very nice guy and truly passionate about AR weather.
If you've never been to the Science After Dark at the MOD, they have it the last Wednesday of each month. $5 will get you in the door (adults only) and you get to check out all the things they have at the museum and interact with whatever theme they have going that night. It was really neat and I'll be back for sure.
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| 0Z GFS snowfall map showing some possible light amounts in N AR early next week with higher amounts in Missouri. |
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
Warmer and Wetter Pattern Shaping Up
March 26, 2013
Clouds are decreasing this morning as a small upper disturbance moves out of the area and will give way to mostly sunny skies with much less wind today. Temps this morning range from the low 20's across NW AR to the low 30's in the central and east. Temps will remain cool today with highs generally in the 40s to near 50.
Clear skies tonight will once again allow temps to drop into the 20's but temps look to start a slow warming trend on Wednesday with highs bumping back into the 50's with possibly a few low 60s.
Rain moves back into the forecast Thursday through Monday although it doesn't look like a washout, there will at least be chances each of those days with Friday/Saturday having the better chances. Temps will warm into the 60's during that time so at least it won't feel cold.
Clear skies tonight will once again allow temps to drop into the 20's but temps look to start a slow warming trend on Wednesday with highs bumping back into the 50's with possibly a few low 60s.
Rain moves back into the forecast Thursday through Monday although it doesn't look like a washout, there will at least be chances each of those days with Friday/Saturday having the better chances. Temps will warm into the 60's during that time so at least it won't feel cold.
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
Winter Weather Advisory for N AR
March 21, 2013
Clouds are streaming into AR this morning ahead of the next weather system. Based on the hi res computer models, it looks like rain will begin breaking out in western AR early afternoon (or late morning) and spreading eastward. Temps in parts of northern AR will be cold enough to support snow or a rain/snow mix with isolated areas of sleet possible at the beginning in other areas.
Rain will continue overnight with north central and northeastern AR cold enough to support some additional snow. Based on all the modeling I've looked at this morning I think a general 1-3" accumulation is possible with locally higher amounts of around 4" of heavy wet snow. Temperatures will be critical with most guidance suggesting low 30s in that part of the state. Roads may be slushy with bridges/overpasses and exposed objects, grassy areas, etc picking up the most snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the area from this afternoon until early morning. Temps should warm both at the surface and aloft which will turn the snow over to a cold rain. This could occur as early as 1-2 am.
For the rest of us, temps will be too warm to support winter precipitation and we're looking at mainly a cold rain although some light snow might sneak in as far south as Beebe before temps warm enough to support nothing but rain.
Rain will continue on and off on Friday and into Saturday. On Saturday, there could be a few thunderstorms with hail over southern AR as this system finally clears out. Severe weather is expected along the gulf coast, so anyone coming back from spring break in AL/FL should be on the lookout for strong storms.
Cooler weather will be the rule going into most of next week.
Rain will continue overnight with north central and northeastern AR cold enough to support some additional snow. Based on all the modeling I've looked at this morning I think a general 1-3" accumulation is possible with locally higher amounts of around 4" of heavy wet snow. Temperatures will be critical with most guidance suggesting low 30s in that part of the state. Roads may be slushy with bridges/overpasses and exposed objects, grassy areas, etc picking up the most snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the area from this afternoon until early morning. Temps should warm both at the surface and aloft which will turn the snow over to a cold rain. This could occur as early as 1-2 am.
For the rest of us, temps will be too warm to support winter precipitation and we're looking at mainly a cold rain although some light snow might sneak in as far south as Beebe before temps warm enough to support nothing but rain.
Rain will continue on and off on Friday and into Saturday. On Saturday, there could be a few thunderstorms with hail over southern AR as this system finally clears out. Severe weather is expected along the gulf coast, so anyone coming back from spring break in AL/FL should be on the lookout for strong storms.
Cooler weather will be the rule going into most of next week.
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| WPC probability map for at least 1" of snow in AR |
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| Winter Weather Advisory (purple) for northern AR |
Is Winter Laughing At Us???
March 16th, 2013
Another "late winter" day today..it is technically still winter but it'll feel more like spring as temperatures warm again into the 60s/70s/80s across the state under mostly sunny skies (there will be a few periods of high clouds drifting across the state similar to the past few days and cloudiness may increase across northern AR as a frontal system moves closer to AR.
The front mentioned above will slide into AR later today/night bringing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly to northern AR with chances starting late tonight but mainly on Sunday. This front will not move through the state but become stationary somewhere in central AR on Sunday. Temps north of the front will be much colder than temps south of the front. Central AR will be in the middle with parts of central AR possibly in the 50s to low 60s while other areas could be upper 60s to 70s on Sunday. Rainfall amounts don't look very high with this system with northern and northeastern AR having the better chances of rainfall.
This front will move through on Monday and cooler air will come in for the early part of the week, but here is where it gets very interesting. Models are forecasting a storm system to develop to the west of AR mid week and move into and through the state on Thursday and Friday. Cooler air will be in place so it doesn't look very "spring like" for parts of the state with temps possibly holding into the 50s for highs. As the storm system pulls through, some of the models are showing colder air being pulled down on the back side of the system bringing...snow...yes I said it..snow to parts of northern and northwestern AR late week. It is really too early to say if this will happen, but if the models stay consistent, we'll have to look at it seriously. Right now most forecasts only show a cold rain. I will post a video from a couple of years ago on the first day of spring in AR. Some places picked up several inches of snow in western/northwestern AR. Even Little Rock saw flakes flying.
I'll have more on this later, but lets enjoy this great Saturday in Arkansas.
Just for grins..(maybe not)..here is the Euro snowfall forecast for Friday in AR. Hopefully, this system will track north and we'll stay warmer..
The front mentioned above will slide into AR later today/night bringing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly to northern AR with chances starting late tonight but mainly on Sunday. This front will not move through the state but become stationary somewhere in central AR on Sunday. Temps north of the front will be much colder than temps south of the front. Central AR will be in the middle with parts of central AR possibly in the 50s to low 60s while other areas could be upper 60s to 70s on Sunday. Rainfall amounts don't look very high with this system with northern and northeastern AR having the better chances of rainfall.
This front will move through on Monday and cooler air will come in for the early part of the week, but here is where it gets very interesting. Models are forecasting a storm system to develop to the west of AR mid week and move into and through the state on Thursday and Friday. Cooler air will be in place so it doesn't look very "spring like" for parts of the state with temps possibly holding into the 50s for highs. As the storm system pulls through, some of the models are showing colder air being pulled down on the back side of the system bringing...snow...yes I said it..snow to parts of northern and northwestern AR late week. It is really too early to say if this will happen, but if the models stay consistent, we'll have to look at it seriously. Right now most forecasts only show a cold rain. I will post a video from a couple of years ago on the first day of spring in AR. Some places picked up several inches of snow in western/northwestern AR. Even Little Rock saw flakes flying.
I'll have more on this later, but lets enjoy this great Saturday in Arkansas.
Just for grins..(maybe not)..here is the Euro snowfall forecast for Friday in AR. Hopefully, this system will track north and we'll stay warmer..
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| Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate a good chance of below normal temps next week into next weekend over a good part of the United States. |
1/2 or NO WORK day today!
March 15th, 2013
How about 80 degrees today? Warm southwesterly winds will usher in much warmer air into Arkansas today with temps warming well into the 70s and even near/low 80s in parts of central/western/southern AR. Should see plenty of sunshine today and Saturday with some occasional high clouds drifting across.
S/SW winds will be gusty to 30 mph at times today and Saturday.
A frontal system will move into northern AR Saturday night bringing with it a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. On Sunday the front will sag further south into the state with more clouds and cooler temps along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. At this time it looks like the northern half of the state will have the coolest temps and rain chances on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will range from the 70s in the south to the mid 50s in the north. Central AR could go either way depending on how far south the front drifts. Right now it looks like 60s for central AR but don't be surprised if cooler air slides further south.
The front will finally move through on Monday with additional rain chances, then cooler (compared to this weekend) weather will set in next week. Another weak system may impact the state mid week but for spring break in AR it doesn't look too bad. Temps holding the the 60s (maybe 50s in the north early week).
If you're lucky enough to be heading down the the AL/FL Gulf beaches for spring break next week, it's going to be mild with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with a chance of rain mid week.
I'm declaring today as a half or no work day. It's going to be too nice so let's just all take off and enjoy the outdoors...
S/SW winds will be gusty to 30 mph at times today and Saturday.
A frontal system will move into northern AR Saturday night bringing with it a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. On Sunday the front will sag further south into the state with more clouds and cooler temps along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. At this time it looks like the northern half of the state will have the coolest temps and rain chances on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will range from the 70s in the south to the mid 50s in the north. Central AR could go either way depending on how far south the front drifts. Right now it looks like 60s for central AR but don't be surprised if cooler air slides further south.
The front will finally move through on Monday with additional rain chances, then cooler (compared to this weekend) weather will set in next week. Another weak system may impact the state mid week but for spring break in AR it doesn't look too bad. Temps holding the the 60s (maybe 50s in the north early week).
If you're lucky enough to be heading down the the AL/FL Gulf beaches for spring break next week, it's going to be mild with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with a chance of rain mid week.
I'm declaring today as a half or no work day. It's going to be too nice so let's just all take off and enjoy the outdoors...
SPRING IS IN THE AIR!!
March 14th, 2013
The warm up begins today! Sunshine with occasional high clouds drifting across the state and warm southerly winds will bring spring like temps to AR for the next few days. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, mid/upper 70s on Friday with a few near/low 80s possible in south and SW AR and mainly 70's on Saturday. By Saturday night, a frontal system will drop into the state and depending on how far south it gets, there will be an increase in clouds with small chances of showers/thunderstorms. Highs on Sunday will be a little cooler due to cloud cover and scattered showers (primarily in the northern half of the state) with temps mainly in the 60's.
The front looks to move through late Sunday into Monday bringing with it chances of showers/thunderstorms. Cooler weather will return next week, but temps look to remain in the 60's for highs due to the Pacific nature of the air. Another system could move through mid week bringing additional rainfall to the state.
Enjoy your day today. I have a feeling that some sick days, vacation days or hooky from work/school is going to happen over the next 3 days. Let's get outside and enjoy the springlike temps.......
The front looks to move through late Sunday into Monday bringing with it chances of showers/thunderstorms. Cooler weather will return next week, but temps look to remain in the 60's for highs due to the Pacific nature of the air. Another system could move through mid week bringing additional rainfall to the state.
Enjoy your day today. I have a feeling that some sick days, vacation days or hooky from work/school is going to happen over the next 3 days. Let's get outside and enjoy the springlike temps.......
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
Feb leaving and March coming in like a Lamb..
Feb 28,2013
February is leaving us and March is upon us while the cool weather continues with highs today generally in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s with sunshine in the morning,but some cloudiness may pivot through from the N as clouds ahead of the next weather system work down from the plains and clouds circulating around the big low to our east move across N/NE AR. The winds will be mainly out of the N/NW at 10-15 mph so they will add a little chill to the air (like yesterday).
As a weak disturbance works through later tonight and Friday/Friday night, there will be small chances of precipitation. Some of that could be in the form of light snow/flurries across northern, central and eastern AR. Not looking for much in the way of accumulations but the GFS is hitting at maybe a dusting to a half an inch across parts of northern/northeastern AR. If it happens, it will be mainly just something to look at. It will be gray day on Friday with plenty of clouds and scattered precipitation with temps in the 30s/40s for highs.
We may see a brief warm up Sunday/Monday before a new front moves through and cools us back down. Looking ahead, the models have been pretty consistent with a system around the 9th/10th with some thunderstorms/heavy rain. It's well out there so plenty of time to watch it.
GSS snowfall map showing a dusting or so across parts of northern/northeastern AR Friday night/early Saturday.
As a weak disturbance works through later tonight and Friday/Friday night, there will be small chances of precipitation. Some of that could be in the form of light snow/flurries across northern, central and eastern AR. Not looking for much in the way of accumulations but the GFS is hitting at maybe a dusting to a half an inch across parts of northern/northeastern AR. If it happens, it will be mainly just something to look at. It will be gray day on Friday with plenty of clouds and scattered precipitation with temps in the 30s/40s for highs.
We may see a brief warm up Sunday/Monday before a new front moves through and cools us back down. Looking ahead, the models have been pretty consistent with a system around the 9th/10th with some thunderstorms/heavy rain. It's well out there so plenty of time to watch it.
GSS snowfall map showing a dusting or so across parts of northern/northeastern AR Friday night/early Saturday.
NW AR Snow....
Feb 25,2013
No changes to the weather system to affect AR today. Clouds will be on the increase and rain will be come likely with a rumble of thunder heard from time to time. The rain will shut off early tonight as dryer air works into the storm system but on the back side, wrap around rain will come back into the state and as colder air filters in, the rain could change to snow, mainly over NW AR where the higher elevations could see 1-3" of accumulation. Winds will be gusty today and especially on Tuesday. Late tonight into Tuesday westerly winds gusting to 35-40 mph are possible. Temps will be mild today with mainly 50's but will fall back into the 40's on Tuesday and with the gusty winds it'll feel much colder.
The exact track of the storm system will determine where the heaviest snow falls. At present, it still appears that areas in OK, KS, MO will see the brunt with NW AR seeing a little, but if the storm system shifts south, this could bring the snow further south. Right now that's not looking likely, but needs to be watched.
The rest of the week looks cool. With a big trough to our east, cold arctic air will continue to spill into the state. A few disturbances working though the upper flow, could bring a few sprinkles/flurries to parts of northern AR mid week.
The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory (blue area) for parts of NW AR for tonight into early Tuesday for possible snow accumulations.
The exact track of the storm system will determine where the heaviest snow falls. At present, it still appears that areas in OK, KS, MO will see the brunt with NW AR seeing a little, but if the storm system shifts south, this could bring the snow further south. Right now that's not looking likely, but needs to be watched.
The rest of the week looks cool. With a big trough to our east, cold arctic air will continue to spill into the state. A few disturbances working though the upper flow, could bring a few sprinkles/flurries to parts of northern AR mid week.
The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory (blue area) for parts of NW AR for tonight into early Tuesday for possible snow accumulations.
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| Overall patter looks colder over the eastern US including AR for the next week. |
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Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
Looks like Spring Temps may be on Hold....
February 23, 2013
Enjoy this weekend as temps warm to near 60 on Sunday because it looks like the overall weather pattern in the eastern half of the United States is about to cool down as a huge trough digs in the east allowing cold air masses to move down from Canada and temporarily delaying our hopes for an early spring (or at least for those who wanted one). In the meantime...a cold front, upper trough and low pressure center will start affecting AR on Monday.How will this affect Arkansas? Right now it looks like we will see rain and maybe a few thundershowers on Monday. Where it gets interesting is Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure will develop to our SW and move to the NE. Where this low develops and tracks will be critical. If it moves over AR towards the NE we could get what we call "dry slotted" where dry air circulates into the low center and cuts off the precipitation for the most part, or will it shift south a little and keep us more moist. Still some questions, but as the system moves off to the east, cold air will get pulled down on the backside and change the rain to snow.
Right now, NW and west central AR would be in a favorable position to see possible winter weather BUT the models have been trending south with this system a little over the past few runs, and if this trend continues, much could change. The NWS mentioned a line from Mena to Little Rock to Searcy and areas to the north and west of this line might see some snow, but it's really too early to say as the track will make all the difference in the world. Just know that Monday night into Tuesday there could be some snow in the state and it could accumulate. To our north and west in OK, KS, MO it looks like they'll see a major snow storm with heavy snow and wind and that could affect NW AR as well.
Bottom line is..will this keep trending south? If it does, we could be in a very favorable position to see some accumulating snow in the state.
After the system moves through, it looks like the big trough will stay for a while and we'll see below normal temps especially towards next weekend. I'll have additional information on the Monday system over the weekend as it becomes available.
Right now, NW and west central AR would be in a favorable position to see possible winter weather BUT the models have been trending south with this system a little over the past few runs, and if this trend continues, much could change. The NWS mentioned a line from Mena to Little Rock to Searcy and areas to the north and west of this line might see some snow, but it's really too early to say as the track will make all the difference in the world. Just know that Monday night into Tuesday there could be some snow in the state and it could accumulate. To our north and west in OK, KS, MO it looks like they'll see a major snow storm with heavy snow and wind and that could affect NW AR as well.
Bottom line is..will this keep trending south? If it does, we could be in a very favorable position to see some accumulating snow in the state.
After the system moves through, it looks like the big trough will stay for a while and we'll see below normal temps especially towards next weekend. I'll have additional information on the Monday system over the weekend as it becomes available.
Slushy mess...
February 20,2013
For those wondering about the difference in rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow and how temps at the surface and above influence precipitation type, here is a graphic I shared back in January. In our current weather pattern, shallow cold arctic air is located at the surface with temps near or below freezing while just a few thousand feet above the surface, warmer, moist air with temps in the low to mid 40s is flowing over the top of the cold air at the surface and we are getting a mix of precipitation. There are pockets of colder air where the entire column is cold enough to support snow, and that's why we saw some snow mixed with the sleet and freezing rain today. Overnight, we should see more freezing rain/sleet then snow due to the depth of the warmer air.
4:00 PM update...
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect now until noon on Thursday (previous advisory went until 4PM) for a mixture of sleet/freezing rain. Temps this evening are near 32 and should drop a couple of more degrees then hold steady and may even rise towards morning. It appears that the worst ice accumulations may be on exposed surfaces, bridges and overpasses in the LR Metro with possible hazardous travel conditions late tonight/early morning.
Pockets of light to heavy sleet/rain mix will occur during the overnight hours with the heaviest precipitation occurring after midnight according to the latest model guidance.
Overall ice accumulations are expected to be near or below a tench of an inch in the LR Metro with up to a quarter inch near Conway and even higher amounts in north central AR. Thunderstorms may occur overnight which could lead to locally higher accumulations. Snow may mix in from time to time with the winter mix but due to warmer air aloft, should be limited to the higher elevations of western and northwestern AR where they have already picked up several inches this afternoon.
It appears for central AR the winter mix will transition to rain during the morning hours as temps are forecast to rise into the mid to upper 30s.
To the north of the Metro an Ice Storm Warning is in effect until 4PM Thursday for significant icing of up to a half an inch with locally higher amounts
ICE STORM WARNING issued for parts of northern and western Arkansas for tonight into Thursday afternoon (purple area) and a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for other areas of the state including the Little Rock Metro for today into tonight and late tonight into Thursday afternoon. NWS Tulsa has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING (pink) for NW AR
In northern and western AR a mixture of winter type precipitation will begin later this morning into tonight with amounts becoming heavier overnight into Thursday and spreading across the state. Ice accumulations of .25-.50 of an inch are possible with snow/sleet accumulations also possible with amounts of snow generally around an inch but higher elevations may see locally more. The precipitation should transition to a mixture of mostly sleet/freezing rain with embedded thunderstorms. In areas that receive thunderstorms, locally higher amounts of ice/sleet are possible.
In NW AR a combination of snow/sleet/freezing rain will make a mess up there with accumulations of 1-3" of snow/sleet and locally higher amounts possible.
The precip will continue overnight into Thursday with a gradual transition to rain from south to north as warmer temps move in.
Temperatures this morning are below freezing in most of northern AR with mid 30s in central and upper 30s to low 40s in the south. Temps today will hold steady in the north/west while holding steady or slowly fall in central. South AR temps may hold steady or fall slightly then begin to warm slowly as warmer air moves to the north ahead of the storm system.
Those living in the Ice Storm Warning areas should make preparations for hazardous travel and possible power disruptions. Those in the Winter Weather Advisory areas should expect possible hazardous travel conditions and there could be power problems as well. As the storm gets closer, temperatures will play a critical role in precipitation type. Be prepared and stay tuned....
In northern and western AR a mixture of winter type precipitation will begin later this morning into tonight with amounts becoming heavier overnight into Thursday and spreading across the state. Ice accumulations of .25-.50 of an inch are possible with snow/sleet accumulations also possible with amounts of snow generally around an inch but higher elevations may see locally more. The precipitation should transition to a mixture of mostly sleet/freezing rain with embedded thunderstorms. In areas that receive thunderstorms, locally higher amounts of ice/sleet are possible.
In NW AR a combination of snow/sleet/freezing rain will make a mess up there with accumulations of 1-3" of snow/sleet and locally higher amounts possible.
The precip will continue overnight into Thursday with a gradual transition to rain from south to north as warmer temps move in.
Temperatures this morning are below freezing in most of northern AR with mid 30s in central and upper 30s to low 40s in the south. Temps today will hold steady in the north/west while holding steady or slowly fall in central. South AR temps may hold steady or fall slightly then begin to warm slowly as warmer air moves to the north ahead of the storm system.
Those living in the Ice Storm Warning areas should make preparations for hazardous travel and possible power disruptions. Those in the Winter Weather Advisory areas should expect possible hazardous travel conditions and there could be power problems as well. As the storm gets closer, temperatures will play a critical role in precipitation type. Be prepared and stay tuned....
Back to Winter?
2/19/2013
A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for part of NW AR for Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as the next storm system affects Arkansas. Cold air at the surface will interact with moisture and set the stage for a kind of messy day or two in AR starting Wednesday afternoon and lasting into Thursday. Temps at the surface will be critical in determining precipitation type. NW AR may see a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain while the northern half may see mix of sleet/freezing rain due to warmer temps aloft.
This will be a tricky forecast as that east/NE wind could help keep temps in check on Wednesday while warmer air to the south tries to move northward. If temps stay below freezing we could see some ice accumulations, but at this time, models are forecasting temps to rise above freezing Thursday over most of AR with the exception of the northern third. Once again, we have to watch temp trends.
The 6z GFS brought snow down into much of the state but the other models we're not in agreement, although the Euro did have snow in NW AR with the heaviest north of AR.
The storm system's track will also be critical. If it were to shift south a bit, then more of the state could experience winter weather, if it tracks further north, then less would see wintry conditions. The cold air is actually helping keep the severe weather threat lower, although there is still a threat in the extreme SE part of the state on Thursday.
I'll keep watching this and update as additional information comes. in. Bottom line...it could be slushy Wed night/Thursday. Stay tuned....
This will be a tricky forecast as that east/NE wind could help keep temps in check on Wednesday while warmer air to the south tries to move northward. If temps stay below freezing we could see some ice accumulations, but at this time, models are forecasting temps to rise above freezing Thursday over most of AR with the exception of the northern third. Once again, we have to watch temp trends.
The 6z GFS brought snow down into much of the state but the other models we're not in agreement, although the Euro did have snow in NW AR with the heaviest north of AR.
The storm system's track will also be critical. If it were to shift south a bit, then more of the state could experience winter weather, if it tracks further north, then less would see wintry conditions. The cold air is actually helping keep the severe weather threat lower, although there is still a threat in the extreme SE part of the state on Thursday.
I'll keep watching this and update as additional information comes. in. Bottom line...it could be slushy Wed night/Thursday. Stay tuned....
Severe Weather Threat
2/18/2013
The Storm Prediction Center has included part of southern AR in a slight risk of severe weather outlook for this afternoon/evening. The main threat is damaging wind.
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| Slight risk of severe weather in yellow |
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| 2% tornado risk across part of AR |
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| Damaging wind threat area |
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| 5% risk of large hail. |
Windy and Wet on this President's Day
Feb 18, 2013
Windy and wet is the theme for today as a storm system and cold front move through AR this afternoon. Expect southerly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms should move across the state this afternoon, although there could be a few in the morning. Hi Res models indicate that the cold front should be moving through central AR this evening with rain quickly ending behind the front. A few strong or even severe storms could be seen but widespread severe weather is not expected today. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60's ahead of the front with mostly cloudy skies.
Temps will cool down behind the front tonight dropping into the 20's and 30's. Tuesday should bring sunshine and cooler temps with highs in the 40's and 50's.
Enjoy your day today!
Temps will cool down behind the front tonight dropping into the 20's and 30's. Tuesday should bring sunshine and cooler temps with highs in the 40's and 50's.
Enjoy your day today!
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| 4km Hi Res NAM wind model showing brisk southerly winds over AR today |
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
Just A Little Snow for Arkansas
February 12,2013
Upper level system is working into AR at this time and will track across the state overnight. This upper system has cold air aloft and is producing a rain/snow mix in the NW this evening with temps in the mid to upper 30s. As the system moves across the state, temperatures will continue to cool and the mix will transition to all snow across parts of NW and north central AR with snow mixing with or changing to sleet/snow deeper into the state overnight. Temperatures will only be marginal for accumulations with most areas staying in the low to mid 30s. Where some of the heavier areas of snow fall, there could be as much as 1-3 or even 4" in the higher elevations of NW AR with lesser amounts elsewhere.
In the mountains of west central AR some areas could see a dusting to maybe an inch. Central AR may see a mix of sleet/snow and rain later tonight but temperatures are expected to remain above freezing so not much in the way of accumulation is expected and any accumulations would be on grassy or exposed surfaces with the roads remaining wet.
If the upper system tracks further to the south or temps cool more than expected, this could change. The system will clear the state early Wednesday morning and we should see sunshine during the day so any snow that falls and accumulates will quickly melt as temps will warm into the 50s to near 60.
The Friday system looks rather weak at this point as far as moisture goes as most models have backed off the low forming to the south with just colder air coming in for Friday and Saturday and a little upper disturbance may kick off some light snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Plenty of time to watch this for any changes if the model solutions.
In the mountains of west central AR some areas could see a dusting to maybe an inch. Central AR may see a mix of sleet/snow and rain later tonight but temperatures are expected to remain above freezing so not much in the way of accumulation is expected and any accumulations would be on grassy or exposed surfaces with the roads remaining wet.
If the upper system tracks further to the south or temps cool more than expected, this could change. The system will clear the state early Wednesday morning and we should see sunshine during the day so any snow that falls and accumulates will quickly melt as temps will warm into the 50s to near 60.
The Friday system looks rather weak at this point as far as moisture goes as most models have backed off the low forming to the south with just colder air coming in for Friday and Saturday and a little upper disturbance may kick off some light snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Plenty of time to watch this for any changes if the model solutions.
Here is the 18z GFS snowfall accumulation map showing just light amounts expected.
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
Clouds And A Little Light Rain
February 4,2013
Good morning Arkansas. Well the Super Bowl didn't exactly go as I thought with the Niners digging themselves a big hole in the first half but they fought back and it came down to the last series. Congrats to all the Raven fans. It was an exciting game (including the power outage).
Now...back to weather.
Temps remain mild this morning and this week as the Jet Stream shifts north leaving Arkansas in a zonal flow aloft (winds moving from west to east). A few blips in the upper flow will bring a couple of chances of rain to the state this week. The first one is today as a storm system over Texas combines with a cold front approaches from the NW to bring scattered rain showers to AR. Rainfall amounts will be rather light (less than a half an inch) and no thunderstorms are expected.
The front will move through tonight and the rain will end, but temps will remain mild. Highs today will range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Highs the rest of the week should remain in the 60s for the most part. Another system similar to today's will swing through on Thursday bringing another chance of rain.
Over the weekend, a stronger system will move in with showers and a few thunderstorms. There could be some heavy rain with this system but at this time the chances of severe weather are low but I'll watch it just in case.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a good chance of seeing above normal rainfall in the state over the weekend into next week. For those areas that are still dry, this is a welcome sight. Temps look to remain above normal this week but there are a few signs that we may cool down next week some. Nothing drastically cold is seen but maybe shifting back to a little below normal.
Now...back to weather.
Temps remain mild this morning and this week as the Jet Stream shifts north leaving Arkansas in a zonal flow aloft (winds moving from west to east). A few blips in the upper flow will bring a couple of chances of rain to the state this week. The first one is today as a storm system over Texas combines with a cold front approaches from the NW to bring scattered rain showers to AR. Rainfall amounts will be rather light (less than a half an inch) and no thunderstorms are expected.
The front will move through tonight and the rain will end, but temps will remain mild. Highs today will range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Highs the rest of the week should remain in the 60s for the most part. Another system similar to today's will swing through on Thursday bringing another chance of rain.
Over the weekend, a stronger system will move in with showers and a few thunderstorms. There could be some heavy rain with this system but at this time the chances of severe weather are low but I'll watch it just in case.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a good chance of seeing above normal rainfall in the state over the weekend into next week. For those areas that are still dry, this is a welcome sight. Temps look to remain above normal this week but there are a few signs that we may cool down next week some. Nothing drastically cold is seen but maybe shifting back to a little below normal.
A SUPER Weekend!
February 1, 2013
Temps are a little chilly this morning as an arctic front moved through the state overnight. The front brought a few snow flurries and there were a few spots where a dusting of snow covered the ground. Today will be sunny to partly sunny but much colder than Thursday. Temps will struggle to get out of the 30s over the NE half of the state with 38-40 for highs in the LR Metro. The cold temps will be short lived as the majority of the cold air moves to the east and north of AR. Saturday there will be a weak system move through with a few sprinkles possible in the morning but for most of us we'll be dry with partly sunny to sunny skies. Temps will warm into the 50s on Saturday with highs closer to 60 on Supebowl Sunday!
Enjoy your weekend and Go Niners! My prediction for the Super Bowl is San Francisco 27 Baltimore 23
Enjoy your weekend and Go Niners! My prediction for the Super Bowl is San Francisco 27 Baltimore 23
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY
January 29, 2013
The timing of thunderstorms today remains about the same, although the hi res models hint at some storms working across the state from the west earlier. This would not be the main system but we do need to watch and see if this situation develops. The threat for severe weather has been expanded a bit with the moderate risk area covering more of Arkansas for this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind is still the main threat. Winds aloft will be very strong over Arkansas this afternoon/night and some of that wind energy could be transported to the surface via thunderstorms.
The tornado threat is elevated as well and we will have to watch for this possibility. The greatest threat area would be parts of central, east central, NE and SE AR where the dynamics may come together a little more, but...that does not mean the rest of the state is in the clear. We will have to watch in all areas of Arkansas. Watch for thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms as these may pose the greatest risk of producing a tornado. With the main line, the leading edge would have a risk of spin up tornadoes and also any broken segments in the line (if the line isn't solid, it's easier for some of the storms to rotate especially on the north and south ends of the broken line).
Hail will be a threat but to a lesser degree due to lack of cold air aloft. Heavy rain will be a concern especially if storms track over the same area over and over.
Cloud cover will help keep the instability levels down, but it does look like the atmosphere will be unstable enough to support widespread severe weather. If we get any sunshine later in the afternoon, this could make the situation a little worse.
If the timing is correct and most of the strong storms move in after dark in central/eastern AR, it will be difficult to see anything as they will be very fast moving and contain heavy rain, so be advised and be prepared to take shelter if a warning is issued for your area.
The tornado threat is elevated as well and we will have to watch for this possibility. The greatest threat area would be parts of central, east central, NE and SE AR where the dynamics may come together a little more, but...that does not mean the rest of the state is in the clear. We will have to watch in all areas of Arkansas. Watch for thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms as these may pose the greatest risk of producing a tornado. With the main line, the leading edge would have a risk of spin up tornadoes and also any broken segments in the line (if the line isn't solid, it's easier for some of the storms to rotate especially on the north and south ends of the broken line).
Hail will be a threat but to a lesser degree due to lack of cold air aloft. Heavy rain will be a concern especially if storms track over the same area over and over.
Cloud cover will help keep the instability levels down, but it does look like the atmosphere will be unstable enough to support widespread severe weather. If we get any sunshine later in the afternoon, this could make the situation a little worse.
If the timing is correct and most of the strong storms move in after dark in central/eastern AR, it will be difficult to see anything as they will be very fast moving and contain heavy rain, so be advised and be prepared to take shelter if a warning is issued for your area.
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| Tornado threat area today in AR |
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| Damaging wind threat area in AR |
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| Large hail threat in AR |
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
January 28, 2013
Update 11:45 am:
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of AR to a MODERATE RISK of severe weather Tuesday evening/night. The main severe weather threat is still strong and damaging winds in thunderstorms but there may be an increased risk of tornadoes especially in the moderate risk area Tuesday evening/night.
It'a warm and rather muggy morning across Arkansas with a few showers here and there. Expect cloudy skies for the most part today although we could see a few breaks of sunshine. Temps today will be well above normal with most locations in the upper 60s to low 70s. Widely scattered showers will dot the state but not really that big of a deal. Southerly winds will be breezy with gusts to 25 mph at times.
Tonight, the winds will stay up and there could be a scattered shower or thunderstorm late with lows generally in the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday brings a threat of heavy rain, and possibly some severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Based on model data this morning, showers and thunderstorms could be scattered around in the morning hours but the main area of storms should begin approaching western AR during the afternoon, moving into central AR during the late afternoon or evening and then exiting eastern AR in the early morning hours.
The main severe weather threat continues to be strong winds in thunderstorms. There will be a risk for isolated tornadoes and this threat could be elevated if we get some additional destabilization of the atmosphere (if we get some sunshine to heat things up). The greatest risk for tornadoes would be with any thunderstorms out ahead of the main line or along the leading edge of any thunderstorm line that moves across the state. This will be fine tuned on Tuesday as more data is available but I would note the possibility.
Remember, that we still have many trees leaning severely from the Christmas ice and snow storm and many branches are actually leaning on or near powerlines. With heavy rain expected along with strong winds in thunderstorms, it won't take much to push the trees all the way over which could contribute to power outages again. Also, tree limbs that were partially broken could fall on people or vehicles if they get blown by the strong winds.
After there front moves through, we'll cool down but it looks like the coldest of the air may stay to the north and east of AR with NE AR cooling down the most. Although models were hinting at some colder air working in while moisture was still around, this morning's runs don't really show much of anything wintry but I'll keep watching it just in case.
Tonight, the winds will stay up and there could be a scattered shower or thunderstorm late with lows generally in the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday brings a threat of heavy rain, and possibly some severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Based on model data this morning, showers and thunderstorms could be scattered around in the morning hours but the main area of storms should begin approaching western AR during the afternoon, moving into central AR during the late afternoon or evening and then exiting eastern AR in the early morning hours.
The main severe weather threat continues to be strong winds in thunderstorms. There will be a risk for isolated tornadoes and this threat could be elevated if we get some additional destabilization of the atmosphere (if we get some sunshine to heat things up). The greatest risk for tornadoes would be with any thunderstorms out ahead of the main line or along the leading edge of any thunderstorm line that moves across the state. This will be fine tuned on Tuesday as more data is available but I would note the possibility.
Remember, that we still have many trees leaning severely from the Christmas ice and snow storm and many branches are actually leaning on or near powerlines. With heavy rain expected along with strong winds in thunderstorms, it won't take much to push the trees all the way over which could contribute to power outages again. Also, tree limbs that were partially broken could fall on people or vehicles if they get blown by the strong winds.
After there front moves through, we'll cool down but it looks like the coldest of the air may stay to the north and east of AR with NE AR cooling down the most. Although models were hinting at some colder air working in while moisture was still around, this morning's runs don't really show much of anything wintry but I'll keep watching it just in case.
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Crazy for Severe Weather...or Not?
January 27,2013
I have seen a few comments made on the severe weather threat on both Facebook and twitter about how "The WeatherNinja" wants and loves severe weather and I thought I would add a comment of my own just to clarify.
I want it to be clear that I never wish severe weather and the destruction it can cause on anyone. I know first hand the damage that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can cause. I have not had first hand experience with injuries or death to a family member or friend and although not experiencing it myself, I feel the pain of those who have been impacted as fellow Arkansans' or Americans.
I chase storms that is true. Why? Well, I have a fascination with weather and have always been amazed at the energy that goes into the development of super cell thunderstorms and tornadoes. My chase partner Erich Hopkins and I have always said our perfect storm would be a tornado out in the middle of a field that doesn't damage anything, but yet even a storm out in a field can cause damage as it might tear up a freshly planted crops, fences, etc.
My main focus is to be the eyes on the ground for the National Weather Service and help get the word out that severe weather may or may not be taking place. They rely on storm spotters across the nation to help them as they can only see the storm via radar vs spotters and chasers on the ground that can confirm what the radar sees. In many cases, when a tornado warning is issued it will mention that doppler radar indicates a tornado may be forming, or a severe thunderstorm is capable of producing a tornado because that is what the radar is indicating. It is a big help to the NWS to have spotters out there and thank goodness, many volunteer their time to go out and relay that info back to the NWS.
I am both a chaser and a spotter. The difference is that I will go out and search for the storms vs. being in a single location and reporting back what I see (which is what many, but not all spotters do). It is a business for me because I stream live video of the storms so that people can see what I see and I also call in reports that are carried live on local television stations. The video and reports help television meteorologists relay information back to the viewers to confirm warning information just as it does the NWS.
One thing that I've learned over the years is not to "hope" for severe weather. I don't do that regardless of what others might say. Severe weather is going to happen and there's nothing we can do to stop it (at this point) but I will do my best to get the word out that the conditions exist and that people should take the necessary precautions and be prepared. So when you see me tweet or post on Facebook or my web page or blog page that severe weather may be possible, it's because I want you to be ready. You won't see me post a "tornado outbreak" is going to happen unless I'm pretty sure atmospheric conditions will support that. The word outbreak is over used in my opinion.
I'm going to be out in the severe weather regardless, doing my best to get on the strongest of the storms. I can't be everywhere at once but thankfully we have a network of storm spotters and some very good chasers in this state that are doing the same thing.
I've been chasing for several years and will continue to until I just can't do it anymore. Is it dangerous..probably, but I've been trained and continue to update that training. Safety is always first. I do make money via sponsors and viewers and that helps defray the cost as it's pretty expensive to travel the state and country in search of storms. I love doing it.
We do have a risk of severe weather Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will we have tornadoes? It remains to be seen as several variables have to come together just right. We may end up with thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rain. If the atmosphere becomes a little more unstable than what models are currently forecasting, then the tornado threat will go up as conditions for rotating thunderstorms will be in play. I looks like the best timing for severe weather will be late afternoon in the west and southwest, then evening to late night in central and northeast then into the early morning hours across the east. I'll be watching and will post on Monday and Tuesday additional information.
Just wanted to clear the air...
Michael
I want it to be clear that I never wish severe weather and the destruction it can cause on anyone. I know first hand the damage that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can cause. I have not had first hand experience with injuries or death to a family member or friend and although not experiencing it myself, I feel the pain of those who have been impacted as fellow Arkansans' or Americans.
I chase storms that is true. Why? Well, I have a fascination with weather and have always been amazed at the energy that goes into the development of super cell thunderstorms and tornadoes. My chase partner Erich Hopkins and I have always said our perfect storm would be a tornado out in the middle of a field that doesn't damage anything, but yet even a storm out in a field can cause damage as it might tear up a freshly planted crops, fences, etc.
My main focus is to be the eyes on the ground for the National Weather Service and help get the word out that severe weather may or may not be taking place. They rely on storm spotters across the nation to help them as they can only see the storm via radar vs spotters and chasers on the ground that can confirm what the radar sees. In many cases, when a tornado warning is issued it will mention that doppler radar indicates a tornado may be forming, or a severe thunderstorm is capable of producing a tornado because that is what the radar is indicating. It is a big help to the NWS to have spotters out there and thank goodness, many volunteer their time to go out and relay that info back to the NWS.
I am both a chaser and a spotter. The difference is that I will go out and search for the storms vs. being in a single location and reporting back what I see (which is what many, but not all spotters do). It is a business for me because I stream live video of the storms so that people can see what I see and I also call in reports that are carried live on local television stations. The video and reports help television meteorologists relay information back to the viewers to confirm warning information just as it does the NWS.
One thing that I've learned over the years is not to "hope" for severe weather. I don't do that regardless of what others might say. Severe weather is going to happen and there's nothing we can do to stop it (at this point) but I will do my best to get the word out that the conditions exist and that people should take the necessary precautions and be prepared. So when you see me tweet or post on Facebook or my web page or blog page that severe weather may be possible, it's because I want you to be ready. You won't see me post a "tornado outbreak" is going to happen unless I'm pretty sure atmospheric conditions will support that. The word outbreak is over used in my opinion.
I'm going to be out in the severe weather regardless, doing my best to get on the strongest of the storms. I can't be everywhere at once but thankfully we have a network of storm spotters and some very good chasers in this state that are doing the same thing.
I've been chasing for several years and will continue to until I just can't do it anymore. Is it dangerous..probably, but I've been trained and continue to update that training. Safety is always first. I do make money via sponsors and viewers and that helps defray the cost as it's pretty expensive to travel the state and country in search of storms. I love doing it.
We do have a risk of severe weather Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will we have tornadoes? It remains to be seen as several variables have to come together just right. We may end up with thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rain. If the atmosphere becomes a little more unstable than what models are currently forecasting, then the tornado threat will go up as conditions for rotating thunderstorms will be in play. I looks like the best timing for severe weather will be late afternoon in the west and southwest, then evening to late night in central and northeast then into the early morning hours across the east. I'll be watching and will post on Monday and Tuesday additional information.
Just wanted to clear the air...
Michael
Who Remembers The Jan 27th & 28th 2000 Snowstorm?
Jan 27, 2013
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| Traffic along 67/167 in Sherwood during the snowstorm Jan 27, 2000 *picture courtesy of NWS Little Rock |
January 27th and 28th 2000 Arkansas was blanketed by snow and ice turning the Natural State into a winter wonderland. I remember this day like it was yesterday. Cold air was already in place and low pressure moving to the south of AR out of Texas set the stage for perfect snow making in Arkansas.
I remember the radar lit up in W/SW Arkansas and it worked towards Little Rock. Much of what fell at first wasn't reaching the ground, but then, as the atmosphere moistened up, the snow began to fall and it fell quickly. It created total gridlock in the LR Metro as everyone left work and school at the same time causing huge traffic problems. For some it took hours to move only a few miles. My wife left downtown Little Rock and took here over 4 hours to get to our house in Sherwood.
This was the heaviest snow to fall in Little Rock in 12 years (the Jan 88 snow) and ended a 3 year snowfall drought in Little Rock. Little Rock officially picked up 6.5" on the 27th, with some areas seeing more. I measured 7" at my house in Sherwood.
Here are some snowfall totals across the state from the storm. Drew county picked up the most with 12-18" falling per NWS records.
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| Snowfall totals from the 27th & 28th 2000 in AR from the NWS |
The snow stuck around for a while too. My kids and I built an igloo out in front of our old house. I remember people driving by and stopping to take pictures of themselves in and out in front of it. It was really fun to build. It even ended up in the newspaper.
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| My son and me standing in front of our igloo. Yes...that is a 49ers jacket I'm wearing. Go Niners! |
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| My wife, daughter and son in front of the igloo |
We've had one nice snow so far this winter in AR. I'm hoping for at least one more before spring makes its appearance.
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Severe Threat Continues for Tuesday
Jan 27, 2013
Severe threat continues for Tuesday in Arkansas. Warm humid air will be clashing with a strong cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out in advance of the storm system. We could be dealing with both heavy rain and strong thunderstorms late afternoon/night into Wednesday morning. At this time the greatest severe threat would be strong damaging winds associated with a line of thunderstorms that is expected to move across the state.
There is a tornado threat but it is conditional on how much the atmosphere destabilizes on Tuesday. As of today, the most likely area would be south and southeast Arkansas. The timing of this event will also play a part. Just be aware that severe weather may be present Tuesday night and as more data comes in, we'll have a better handle on the extent and type.
Although the Euro backed off the "big" snow that it showed for Thursday (and by backing off I mean, took it out) models are hinting at some moisture still present as the colder air comes in behind the cold front. Stay tuned for this as there is still a chance of some light wintry precipitation if this trend continues. The 6z NAM showed a swath of a couple of inches of snow across central and NE AR while the GFS showed a dusting to an inch or so across the same area. This should not be taken as a forecast but just something to keep our eyes on for future runs.
Could More Snow Be In Our Future?
January 25,2013
Temps this morning are at or near freezing in some central AR locations as well as the NE part of the state while temps rose slightly overnight across other parts of the state. Little Rock is reporting 32 and NLR 31 degrees at 6AM. There is some light drizzle around central AR but not causing any road issues at the moment but we do need to watch the next couple of hours as temps will hold near the freezing mark and the precipitation will be moving to the east. We should be ok by mid morning as temps begin to warm and the drizzle moves east of AR.
A frontal system will move through, then stall along the Gulf Coast, then begin to move back north. This will lead to more clouds across AR over the weekend as warmer air begins to move back north. Can't rule out a few light sprinkles or light rain at times but it should be no big deal really. Temps look to warm into the 50s today and Saturday with near 60 to low 60s on Sunday.
Computer models are not in agreement next week so there are questions as to how the weather will play out. The GFS is quicker with pushing a cold front through bringing showers and thunderstorms early week and much warmer temperatures with cold and dry weather to follow. The severe threat still needs to be watched but as of this morning it doesn't look as impressive.
If you are a winter weather lover (snow) you want to pay attention to the Euro. That model pushes colder air into the state mid week then pulls an upper level low right across AR Thursday. This set up would bring winter weather to AR. One thing to note..the Euro has been pretty darn good this winter so even though its still 7 days out, based on its track record, we can't discount this model shift.
Here is the 00z Euro snowfall map for next Thursday/Friday. Yes those are some crazy snowfall amounts. If this verifies...it'll be a winter wonderland in AR.
A frontal system will move through, then stall along the Gulf Coast, then begin to move back north. This will lead to more clouds across AR over the weekend as warmer air begins to move back north. Can't rule out a few light sprinkles or light rain at times but it should be no big deal really. Temps look to warm into the 50s today and Saturday with near 60 to low 60s on Sunday.
Computer models are not in agreement next week so there are questions as to how the weather will play out. The GFS is quicker with pushing a cold front through bringing showers and thunderstorms early week and much warmer temperatures with cold and dry weather to follow. The severe threat still needs to be watched but as of this morning it doesn't look as impressive.
If you are a winter weather lover (snow) you want to pay attention to the Euro. That model pushes colder air into the state mid week then pulls an upper level low right across AR Thursday. This set up would bring winter weather to AR. One thing to note..the Euro has been pretty darn good this winter so even though its still 7 days out, based on its track record, we can't discount this model shift.
Here is the 00z Euro snowfall map for next Thursday/Friday. Yes those are some crazy snowfall amounts. If this verifies...it'll be a winter wonderland in AR.
Possible Winter and Severe Weather
January 23,2013
There are a few clouds drifting across the state this morning and it's chilly out there but not as cold as the rest of the nation. Temps this morning range from the low 20s to the mid 30s across the state. We'll have a pretty nice day with partly sunny skies and temps warming into the 50s and 60s. An arctic cold front will slip into the state and move south overnight. Areas of mainly extreme northern AR could cool down enough to see some light freezing rain/drizzle late tonight into the early morning hours.
On Thursday with the front continuing to move south, the northern half of the state can expect a rather RAW day with clouds and small chances of light rain/or drizzle and stiff NE winds keeping the temps in the 30's and low 40s. Later in the day Thursday and Thursday night rain should increase some as a low pressure center moves through the state along the front. In the northern sections of the state the temps may be cold enough for some winter precipitation with freezing rain/sleet/drizzle being the dominant form but some models also hint at some light snow developing across parts of northern AR. Amounts of any ice/snow would be small but there is a chance that some hazardous travel could develop. The main focus area would be north of a Clarksville to Searcy line, and this would need to be watched to see if the colder temps move further south.
On Thursday with the front continuing to move south, the northern half of the state can expect a rather RAW day with clouds and small chances of light rain/or drizzle and stiff NE winds keeping the temps in the 30's and low 40s. Later in the day Thursday and Thursday night rain should increase some as a low pressure center moves through the state along the front. In the northern sections of the state the temps may be cold enough for some winter precipitation with freezing rain/sleet/drizzle being the dominant form but some models also hint at some light snow developing across parts of northern AR. Amounts of any ice/snow would be small but there is a chance that some hazardous travel could develop. The main focus area would be north of a Clarksville to Searcy line, and this would need to be watched to see if the colder temps move further south.
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| Models indicate some wintry weather possible across N AR late Thursday/early Friday |
Another system on Sunday night could produce some light wintry precip across the north, then the focus turns to early next week. Temps look to warm into the upper 60s/low 70s next Tuesday and with a storm system/cold front moving towards Arkansas, we may see some severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted Arkansas for this possibility. I will keep and eye on this for sure.
SPC Day 7 severe weather outlook (next Tue/Wed) indicates some severe weather is possible in Arkansas:
After a nice weekend..the cool down begins..
January 21,2013
A chilly morning in Arkansas on this January 21st. A cold front has moved through most of Arkansas with much colder temps (as compared to the weekend) filtering into the state. Temps today will struggle to rise much especially in the north and central sections of the state. You can expect afternoon highs to warm (if you call it that) only into the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. Tonight temps will fall into the upper teens to mid 20s (they may be slightly higher if come mid/upper level clouds move across AR with an upper disturbance), and Tuesday will see temps in the 30s/40s statewide for afternoon highs. We'll start to warm up on Wednesday and by Friday should be back into the 50s to near 60 with small rain chances working into the forecast before another shot of colder air comes in for the weekend.
I went trout fishing on the Little Red River on Saturday and it was the first time in Arkansas I've ever been fishing with the temperature below freezing. It was interesting as the water on my fishing line and pole would freeze which would affect the way it handled when I cast the bait. But after the sun came up, it quickly warmed up and we caught several fish (we being Todd Yakoubian and some other weather geeks around Arkansas). Todd caught the most with 25, I came in third with 19. The daily limit is 5 so we threw the smaller ones back. I had some nice baked trout for dinner.
Looking at the long range, it looks like some colder air may work into AR towards the end of the month, but the Euro warmed us well into the 60s before the colder air came in, so we might have to watch for storms.
Enjoy your day today!
Here's a picture of me and the first catch of the day on Saturday!
I went trout fishing on the Little Red River on Saturday and it was the first time in Arkansas I've ever been fishing with the temperature below freezing. It was interesting as the water on my fishing line and pole would freeze which would affect the way it handled when I cast the bait. But after the sun came up, it quickly warmed up and we caught several fish (we being Todd Yakoubian and some other weather geeks around Arkansas). Todd caught the most with 25, I came in third with 19. The daily limit is 5 so we threw the smaller ones back. I had some nice baked trout for dinner.
Looking at the long range, it looks like some colder air may work into AR towards the end of the month, but the Euro warmed us well into the 60s before the colder air came in, so we might have to watch for storms.
Enjoy your day today!
Here's a picture of me and the first catch of the day on Saturday!
A couple of weather notes: Today back in 1999 Arkansas set a record for the number of tornadoes in one day (56). Many of you will remember that day for the destruction caused by that severe weather outbreak. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes wrecked havoc across the state including Little Rock and Beebe.
I saw and called in the Little Rock tornado as it lifted near I-30. It was the first time I had taken my son Casey out on a chase. The storms and warnings were coming in too fast to even remember then all. It was unbelievable and I'll never forget it.
Maumelle was lucky that day as a wall cloud and funnel crossed over the city but didn't touch down but many other cities were not so lucky.
Here is a look back from the NWS Little Rock:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=tor1999.htm
And yesterday and today back in 1985 saw very cold arctic air covering the nation including Arkansas. NLR set their all time low of -6 on January 20 with Little Rock coming in a -2 degrees. Now that's a true "jailbreak arctic air mass".
I saw and called in the Little Rock tornado as it lifted near I-30. It was the first time I had taken my son Casey out on a chase. The storms and warnings were coming in too fast to even remember then all. It was unbelievable and I'll never forget it.
Maumelle was lucky that day as a wall cloud and funnel crossed over the city but didn't touch down but many other cities were not so lucky.
Here is a look back from the NWS Little Rock:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=tor1999.htm
And yesterday and today back in 1985 saw very cold arctic air covering the nation including Arkansas. NLR set their all time low of -6 on January 20 with Little Rock coming in a -2 degrees. Now that's a true "jailbreak arctic air mass".
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Warmer Weather...Here It Comes!
January 17,2013
Warmer weather..here it comes!
Clouds are clearing this morning as that upper level low to our south moves east. This system brought some light precipitation to Southern Arkansas overnight and this morning. Have seen a few reports of some light sleet and snow flurry activity but the main rain/snow shield is in Mississippi and will continue to move east this morning giving those kids the opportunity to make a snowman or two.
For us, sunshine will be abundant with mild temps today through next week. What was thought to be some colder air spilling into the state now doesn't look so cold with just a glancing blow as the push of colder air goes to the east of AR. With highs generally in the 50s over the weekend, we'll cool down on Monday with some mid to upper 40's for Little Rock but then it looks like we'll return to 50s mid to late week and all under dry conditions as the weather takes a break across the United States.
I know I plan on getting out and enjoying the sunshine with a little trout fishing with my weather geek friends Saturday morning up on the Little Red River.
After the snow, ice and cold we've had over the past couple of weeks..let's all get out and enjoy the mild January weather. Get out and make some memories this weekend!
Latest 8-14 day outlook for mid to end of next week from CPC shows mild weather across a large part of the United States. A welcome relief from the cold and snow (unless you love cold and snow)>
Clouds are clearing this morning as that upper level low to our south moves east. This system brought some light precipitation to Southern Arkansas overnight and this morning. Have seen a few reports of some light sleet and snow flurry activity but the main rain/snow shield is in Mississippi and will continue to move east this morning giving those kids the opportunity to make a snowman or two.
For us, sunshine will be abundant with mild temps today through next week. What was thought to be some colder air spilling into the state now doesn't look so cold with just a glancing blow as the push of colder air goes to the east of AR. With highs generally in the 50s over the weekend, we'll cool down on Monday with some mid to upper 40's for Little Rock but then it looks like we'll return to 50s mid to late week and all under dry conditions as the weather takes a break across the United States.
I know I plan on getting out and enjoying the sunshine with a little trout fishing with my weather geek friends Saturday morning up on the Little Red River.
After the snow, ice and cold we've had over the past couple of weeks..let's all get out and enjoy the mild January weather. Get out and make some memories this weekend!
Latest 8-14 day outlook for mid to end of next week from CPC shows mild weather across a large part of the United States. A welcome relief from the cold and snow (unless you love cold and snow)>
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Enough Already!!!
January 16, 2013
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| This mornings satellite photo showing the moisture transport belt from the Pacific into the SE U. S. |
Clouds are hanging in across AR this morning with some light returns showing up on radar across parts of the southern sections of the state. At this time, nothing more than a few snow flurries or light sleet/rain is expected as a little disturbance swings through.
Temperatures this morning range from the mid teens in the NW to the low 30s in parts of the central and southern sections of the state so some melting is occurring on the roads with the side streets and bridges seeing the most hazardous travel this morning.
We should see at least some sunshine later today as the disturbance moves to the east. Eastern and SE AR may see clouds hold a little longer though. Temps look to warm into the 40s.
The parent upper low is now over Texas and continues to move to the east. Most of the moisture is to the east of AR but until this low moves east of us, we cannot rule out some sort of precipitation. The models are rather dry with this system, but remember..these systems can be tricky and even the NWS is inserting small chances of light snow flurries late tonight into Thursday morning. At this time (and that could change) we're not expecting much in the way of accumulation and the favored areas if something did develop would be SE AR. It's something to watch!
The entire system will be out of here on Thursday and most of the state will warm to near 50 degrees with near 60 to low 60s in spots by Saturday. Colder arctic air will funnel into the state early next week bringing us back below normal, but to be honest, I don't see the brutal cold that some are talking about. It looks colder than what we'll see over the weekend but nothing that we have not already seen this winter. It won't last long with the long range outlook for mid to end of next week warming us back up above normal and keeping us dry. But with weather patterns...changes can happen and happen fast so I'll keep watching it for any changes. With two snow/ice events so far in Central AR this winter..I'm hearing people just want spring already....
Temperatures this morning range from the mid teens in the NW to the low 30s in parts of the central and southern sections of the state so some melting is occurring on the roads with the side streets and bridges seeing the most hazardous travel this morning.
We should see at least some sunshine later today as the disturbance moves to the east. Eastern and SE AR may see clouds hold a little longer though. Temps look to warm into the 40s.
The parent upper low is now over Texas and continues to move to the east. Most of the moisture is to the east of AR but until this low moves east of us, we cannot rule out some sort of precipitation. The models are rather dry with this system, but remember..these systems can be tricky and even the NWS is inserting small chances of light snow flurries late tonight into Thursday morning. At this time (and that could change) we're not expecting much in the way of accumulation and the favored areas if something did develop would be SE AR. It's something to watch!
The entire system will be out of here on Thursday and most of the state will warm to near 50 degrees with near 60 to low 60s in spots by Saturday. Colder arctic air will funnel into the state early next week bringing us back below normal, but to be honest, I don't see the brutal cold that some are talking about. It looks colder than what we'll see over the weekend but nothing that we have not already seen this winter. It won't last long with the long range outlook for mid to end of next week warming us back up above normal and keeping us dry. But with weather patterns...changes can happen and happen fast so I'll keep watching it for any changes. With two snow/ice events so far in Central AR this winter..I'm hearing people just want spring already....
Here is the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. It shows a cold air mass moving into the US early next week but doesn't stick around long. The air is coldest in the northern US and while cold here, nothing that we have not seen already this winter. The 8-14 day outlook for the period mid to end of next week shows chances of above normal temps in Arkansas. A welcome thought by many...
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Winter has returned! When is it going to snow again?
January 13, 2013
Update 9:30 pm Sunday
The 0z NAM is in and it shows a much stronger system on Thursday with snow across a large part of AR. This will have to be watched to see if this trend continues in the next day or so...Remember, this is not a forecast and is only a model run.
Well for those who like winter temperatures you should be happy with the transition back to cold. Temps tonight will take a nose dive and could drop into the upper single digits in extreme NW AR with teens and 20's elsewhere with the exception of far SE AR where they may hold in the low 30's to near 30. I would not be surprised to see some zero or slightly below wind chills in NW with single digits to teens elsewhere.
Some moisture is shown on the computer models this afternoon to push back into Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. How far north the moisture gets is still in question but it does appear enough will make it into the central and southern sections of the state to produce a little wintry weather. Right now amounts look to be light with the best moisture in far SE AR. Central Arkansas has cold air deep enough that the precipitation would be mainly sleet or light snow, while Southern AR would see a sleet/freezing rain mix due to warmer temps above the surface.
Amounts are expected to be light with less than a tenth of an inch of ice. In central sections of the state, amounts look to light at this point to cause much concern BUT this will have to be watched as it doesn't take much to cause slick spots and if more moisture moves north there could be a few travel problems on bridges and overpasses. The time frame for all of this looks to start in the early morning hours and the chances will extend into early afternoon.
Temps will be cold in the morning and may not warm much if precip is falling. Right now LR is forecast to see 34 -36 for a high after an early morning low of 19-22 degrees, so it won't warm much. Southern AR could stay close to freezing, while the north should warm into the low to mid 30s. The chances of snow or sleet decrease significantly north of LR.
The pattern of cold will be with us through most of the week it now appears and another system coming in for Wednesday night into Thursday will need to be watched. This system could bring another round of winter weather to sections of Central and Southern Arkansas based on the latest computer runs. Nothing is set in stone but we do need to watch as the GFS is painting up to 3" of snow in some sections Thursday morning in SW, Central and SE AR.
As more data comes in..we'll have a better handle on it.
If this cold wasn't enough..some of the long range guidance suggests that we may see even colder air coming in week after next. It is winter and it should be cold. In just 6 months..we'll be sweating in the summer heat and humidity.
Some moisture is shown on the computer models this afternoon to push back into Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. How far north the moisture gets is still in question but it does appear enough will make it into the central and southern sections of the state to produce a little wintry weather. Right now amounts look to be light with the best moisture in far SE AR. Central Arkansas has cold air deep enough that the precipitation would be mainly sleet or light snow, while Southern AR would see a sleet/freezing rain mix due to warmer temps above the surface.
Amounts are expected to be light with less than a tenth of an inch of ice. In central sections of the state, amounts look to light at this point to cause much concern BUT this will have to be watched as it doesn't take much to cause slick spots and if more moisture moves north there could be a few travel problems on bridges and overpasses. The time frame for all of this looks to start in the early morning hours and the chances will extend into early afternoon.
Temps will be cold in the morning and may not warm much if precip is falling. Right now LR is forecast to see 34 -36 for a high after an early morning low of 19-22 degrees, so it won't warm much. Southern AR could stay close to freezing, while the north should warm into the low to mid 30s. The chances of snow or sleet decrease significantly north of LR.
The pattern of cold will be with us through most of the week it now appears and another system coming in for Wednesday night into Thursday will need to be watched. This system could bring another round of winter weather to sections of Central and Southern Arkansas based on the latest computer runs. Nothing is set in stone but we do need to watch as the GFS is painting up to 3" of snow in some sections Thursday morning in SW, Central and SE AR.
As more data comes in..we'll have a better handle on it.
If this cold wasn't enough..some of the long range guidance suggests that we may see even colder air coming in week after next. It is winter and it should be cold. In just 6 months..we'll be sweating in the summer heat and humidity.
Here is the 18Z GFS showing possible snowfall accumulations in the state Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Slight Risk of Severe Weather
January 12, 2013
Pretty heavy round of showers and a few thunderstorms is working through Central Arkansas this morning and that looks to be the rule today through the rest of the day into tonight as a cold front enters NW Arkansas later today and warm moist air pushes up from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front.
There is a risk of severe weather primarily about the SE 1/2 of the state later this afternoon. Strong winds could develop in a few of the thunderstorms and if any sunshine can break out, the atmosphere might get a little more unstable and one or two storms could produce a tornado. The chances are still low but we still have to watch for this possibility. We were under a slight risk on Thursday and had no reports of severe weather in the state.
Today it's a little warmer than Thursday was so already the atmosphere is a little juicier....
Rainfall amounts from today/tonight's storms should range from 1-3" with an area from SW-Central- NE possibly seeing slightly more.
The NWS in Tulsa has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for far NW Arkansas for late this afternoon into Sunday morning. As colder air comes in, there will be a little bit of moisture left which could cause some light freezing rain/sleet/snow for that part of the state starting this evening into Sunday morning. Ice accumulations are expected to remain less than a tenth of an inch and snowfall one inch or less in these areas with the heaviest amounts closer to the Missouri border. This needs to be watched for any changes.
As the front moves through, temps will drop off quickly. Temps in NW AR could be in the upper 30's by early evening while Central/SE Arkansas could be upper 60's to low 70's.
Sunday will be much cooler across the state with highs generally in the 30's, 40's and 50's with rainfall ending in the E/SE.
Our winter weather prospects have taken a nosedive according to the latest computer models with slight chances Monday/Monday night in SE Arkansas (ice or sleet). There is a chance during the mid week period an upper disturbance could create a little winter weather but most models aren't hitting on it so we'll just have to watch that as well. Temps will be colder, but like I said yesterday, indications are that they will be below normal but nothing that we haven't seen already this winter.
Stay abreast of the weather situation this afternoon and be aware of flooding and severe weather possibilities.
There is a risk of severe weather primarily about the SE 1/2 of the state later this afternoon. Strong winds could develop in a few of the thunderstorms and if any sunshine can break out, the atmosphere might get a little more unstable and one or two storms could produce a tornado. The chances are still low but we still have to watch for this possibility. We were under a slight risk on Thursday and had no reports of severe weather in the state.
Today it's a little warmer than Thursday was so already the atmosphere is a little juicier....
Rainfall amounts from today/tonight's storms should range from 1-3" with an area from SW-Central- NE possibly seeing slightly more.
The NWS in Tulsa has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for far NW Arkansas for late this afternoon into Sunday morning. As colder air comes in, there will be a little bit of moisture left which could cause some light freezing rain/sleet/snow for that part of the state starting this evening into Sunday morning. Ice accumulations are expected to remain less than a tenth of an inch and snowfall one inch or less in these areas with the heaviest amounts closer to the Missouri border. This needs to be watched for any changes.
As the front moves through, temps will drop off quickly. Temps in NW AR could be in the upper 30's by early evening while Central/SE Arkansas could be upper 60's to low 70's.
Sunday will be much cooler across the state with highs generally in the 30's, 40's and 50's with rainfall ending in the E/SE.
Our winter weather prospects have taken a nosedive according to the latest computer models with slight chances Monday/Monday night in SE Arkansas (ice or sleet). There is a chance during the mid week period an upper disturbance could create a little winter weather but most models aren't hitting on it so we'll just have to watch that as well. Temps will be colder, but like I said yesterday, indications are that they will be below normal but nothing that we haven't seen already this winter.
Stay abreast of the weather situation this afternoon and be aware of flooding and severe weather possibilities.
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| 0z Euro shows a little bit of snow accumulation in NW Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning. |
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
What's It Going To Do....
January 11,2013
I will have a post later today on the weekend weather and any winter weather chances Sunday into early next week. There is still some data I want to look at. Today is going to be really nice and springlike with high temps warming into the 60's to near 70 under mostly sunny skies. Rain looks to move back in later tonight through Saturday night. Some of that rain could be heavy with some amounts approaching 4" in E/SE AR.
Colder air will filter in slowly behind the storm system and front Saturday night in NW AR and the rest of the state on Sunday. This air will set the stage for a winter mix in parts of the state with precip types ranging from freezing rain to sleet to snow. As of today's model runs the amounts look to be light, but that can change especially if things slow down or tracks change. We are just going to have to watch it and will have a much better handle on it later today and Saturday.
Here is the latest HPC %map for possible ice accumulations of at least 0.10" but as Todd Yakoubian always reminds me..it only takes one or two hundredths of an inch of ice to mess up travel so this will need to be watched and is subject to change.
Colder air will filter in slowly behind the storm system and front Saturday night in NW AR and the rest of the state on Sunday. This air will set the stage for a winter mix in parts of the state with precip types ranging from freezing rain to sleet to snow. As of today's model runs the amounts look to be light, but that can change especially if things slow down or tracks change. We are just going to have to watch it and will have a much better handle on it later today and Saturday.
Here is the latest HPC %map for possible ice accumulations of at least 0.10" but as Todd Yakoubian always reminds me..it only takes one or two hundredths of an inch of ice to mess up travel so this will need to be watched and is subject to change.
The Wild Weather Continues....
January 10, 2013
It's foggy this morning with additional rain moving up from the south as the upper low over Texas begins to move this way. Rainfall should be greater in the east vs west but just about everyone could see rain today with some thunderstorms also possible. Temps will warm to the 60's this afternoon and be near 70 on Friday as the sunshine should be abundant as the current storm system moves away.
Attention turns to the weekend and early next week. An arctic front looks to move into AR on Saturday with low pressure moving slowly along the front. Rain and thunderstorms will be seen again on Saturday with some heavy rain possible. Colder air coming in behind the front could set the stage for some winter weather in NW Arkansas beginning Saturday night. Right now it is too soon to forecast amounts but it does appear to be a light event with amounts generally around 0.10" to maybe a little more of ice.
Sunday into Monday needs to be watched as models are now pushing the colder air deeper into Arkansas. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to ride up and over the cold air and produce precipitation. Once again, amounts and type are hard to predict at this time as the extent of the cold air remains to be seen, but the euro is forecasting both snow and ice in the state including Central and North AR while the GFS isn't as bullish but does show some light snow/sleet/ice as well. As we are moving close to the event, better data will become available and we'll have a better handle on what and if we receive winter weather. Just know that it is a possibility and be prepared just in case. It does look like after temps near 70 on Saturday we'll get back to January reality with highs in the 30's and 40's early week. Stay tuned.....
Getting Ready for the Next Big Ice Storm
or just being prepared.....
January 8th, 2013
The Christmas snowstorm caused headaches for many in the form of travel disruption and power outages (some, including my mother for more than 5 days). This disruption in our life style has brought many to the point of being better prepared for the next snow or ice storm. In my opinion, don't wait for a snow or ice storm, it could be a thunderstorm, wind, tornado, earthquake or just loss of electricity that disrupts our current life style to the point where we almost can't survive (that's a stretch I know but sometimes I wonder).
Without going into a lot of detail on what you should or shouldn't have in a "survival kit", I am going to post some info I received from one of my twitter followers. His name is Jeff Yates and the slide is from a presentation given by Ted Grace at Stephens Insurance. The Top Seven Disaster Survival Tools. Remember, these are suggestions and tools to go along with the obvious items you would probably need in a kit (food, clothing, water, baby supplies, toiletries, etc). Don't forget baby wipes preferably Huggies (plug, plug) as they make it easy to clean up both your body and surroundings.
Here is a link for another nice site with information on how to prepare for a Winter Storm:
http://www.wikihow.com/Prepare-for-a-Winter-Storm
Another link from the NWS in N Little Rock on winter weather information:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=wintable.htm
There are all kinds of sites out there with survival information. You can google them and pick out one that suits your needs. The best advice I can give you is be prepared and know what to do. Being prepared could be the difference between life and death.
Now..on to weather.
We are expecting a storm system to affect Arkansas over the next couple of days with possible heavy rain. Although flooding doesn't look to be a huge threat at the moment due to the dry conditions experienced before the Christmas snow system, but with a few periods of heavy rain possible, we'll have to watch for localized flooding in some of the heavier showers.
After this storm system departs we'll warm up briefly before the battle of the air masses begins. We've been talking about a return to colder weather for several days and it does look like we'll cool down (but not before we get into the 60's to near 70 on Friday/Saturday) as arctic air is poised to move into the United States from Canada. Arctic air is generally very shallow near the leading edge sometimes only extending a few hundred to a thousand feet or so. With such a shallow air mass, it can be difficult to get over the mountains in Western and Northern Arkansas. One doesn't usually think of the Ozarks and Quachita's as high enough to block weather, but in the case of arctic air, it is very possible. With mountains in the 1000-2500 ft range and arctic air only 500 -1000 ft deep at the edge, you can see how the mountains can block that cold air from coming south. That's why we like to point out that in many cases when we have winter weather we have a NE wind where the air comes in from the midwest and around the mountains, oooozing in from NE AR.
So that's where the battle will be this weekend into next week. Will the cold air be deep enough to get over the mountains while we have moisture in the state or will it get hung up in the mountains, giving them a chance of winter weather while the rest of us get a cold rain?
The models are battling it out with the GFS in the camp that the cold air doesn't really get past the mountains, and the Euro while still keeping the idea that the mountains will hang up the cold air, does penetrate deeper into the south with some winter precipitation.
The type of winter precipitation that would fall, relies entirely on how deep the cold air is. It could be snow if the entire column of air is below freezing, or sleet if some warm air edges in between the surface and the upper levels, or freezing rain if the air mass is very shallow and surface temps are below freezing. Many variables are at play here. High pressure at the surface will try to push the cold air south, but in the upper levels, a southwest flow will keep the cold air from advancing too far south but could allow for some moisture to ride up and over the colder air at the surface.
Here is a diagram from the NWS that illustrates snow, sleet and freezing rain and how the type of air mass in place determines the precipitation type:
Looking at the models and comparing them the GFS pretty much keeps most of the state warm enough for rain on Sunday with only small chances of precipitation. This is based off today's model runs and those will change by the time the weekend get's closer so don't take them as a forecast. The same with the Euro.
Data from Weather Bell & NWS:
So there you have it. A look at the model battle. Once we get inside of 84 hours we can start looking at what the NAM is forecasting. The bottom line is to keep abreast of the changing weather over the next several days. There may be another system early to middle of next week with more forecasting challenges. If the cold air settles in, we could be in for a wild ride over the next few weeks as Arkansas will surely be in the battlezone between the warm and the cold. Stay tuned...
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
We're Warming Up But Is Colder Weather Coming???
Jan 4,2013January 10, 2013
It's foggy this morning with additional rain moving up from the south as the upper low over Texas begins to move this way. Rainfall should be greater in the east vs west but just about everyone could see rain today with some thunderstorms also possible. Temps will warm to the 60's this afternoon and be near 70 on Friday as the sunshine should be abundant as the current storm system moves away.
Attention turns to the weekend and early next week. An arctic front looks to move into AR on Saturday with low pressure moving slowly along the front. Rain and thunderstorms will be seen again on Saturday with some heavy rain possible. Colder air coming in behind the front could set the stage for some winter weather in NW Arkansas beginning Saturday night. Right now it is too soon to forecast amounts but it does appear to be a light event with amounts generally around 0.10" to maybe a little more of ice.
Sunday into Monday needs to be watched as models are now pushing the colder air deeper into Arkansas. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to ride up and over the cold air and produce precipitation. Once again, amounts and type are hard to predict at this time as the extent of the cold air remains to be seen, but the euro is forecasting both snow and ice in the state including Central and North AR while the GFS isn't as bullish but does show some light snow/sleet/ice as well. As we are moving close to the event, better data will become available and we'll have a better handle on what and if we receive winter weather. Just know that it is a possibility and be prepared just in case. It does look like after temps near 70 on Saturday we'll get back to January reality with highs in the 30's and 40's early week. Stay tuned.....
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| 0Z Euro precipitation amounts Sunday. Note the freezing line is deeper into AR. |
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| The GFS doesn't show as much moisture but does have some Sunday and the freezing line is about the same as the Euro. |
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| This is the Euro snowfall map. We'll have to watch and see if this verifies. There would be a lot of ice and sleet with this if this scenario did develop. Not a forecast and this model has been flipping back and forth but worth showing. |
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| GFS snowfall map for about the same area as the Euro but amounts were much, much less. |
Getting Ready for the Next Big Ice Storm
or just being prepared.....
January 8th, 2013
The Christmas snowstorm caused headaches for many in the form of travel disruption and power outages (some, including my mother for more than 5 days). This disruption in our life style has brought many to the point of being better prepared for the next snow or ice storm. In my opinion, don't wait for a snow or ice storm, it could be a thunderstorm, wind, tornado, earthquake or just loss of electricity that disrupts our current life style to the point where we almost can't survive (that's a stretch I know but sometimes I wonder).
Without going into a lot of detail on what you should or shouldn't have in a "survival kit", I am going to post some info I received from one of my twitter followers. His name is Jeff Yates and the slide is from a presentation given by Ted Grace at Stephens Insurance. The Top Seven Disaster Survival Tools. Remember, these are suggestions and tools to go along with the obvious items you would probably need in a kit (food, clothing, water, baby supplies, toiletries, etc). Don't forget baby wipes preferably Huggies (plug, plug) as they make it easy to clean up both your body and surroundings.
Here is a link for another nice site with information on how to prepare for a Winter Storm:
http://www.wikihow.com/Prepare-for-a-Winter-Storm
Another link from the NWS in N Little Rock on winter weather information:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=wintable.htm
There are all kinds of sites out there with survival information. You can google them and pick out one that suits your needs. The best advice I can give you is be prepared and know what to do. Being prepared could be the difference between life and death.
Now..on to weather.
We are expecting a storm system to affect Arkansas over the next couple of days with possible heavy rain. Although flooding doesn't look to be a huge threat at the moment due to the dry conditions experienced before the Christmas snow system, but with a few periods of heavy rain possible, we'll have to watch for localized flooding in some of the heavier showers.
After this storm system departs we'll warm up briefly before the battle of the air masses begins. We've been talking about a return to colder weather for several days and it does look like we'll cool down (but not before we get into the 60's to near 70 on Friday/Saturday) as arctic air is poised to move into the United States from Canada. Arctic air is generally very shallow near the leading edge sometimes only extending a few hundred to a thousand feet or so. With such a shallow air mass, it can be difficult to get over the mountains in Western and Northern Arkansas. One doesn't usually think of the Ozarks and Quachita's as high enough to block weather, but in the case of arctic air, it is very possible. With mountains in the 1000-2500 ft range and arctic air only 500 -1000 ft deep at the edge, you can see how the mountains can block that cold air from coming south. That's why we like to point out that in many cases when we have winter weather we have a NE wind where the air comes in from the midwest and around the mountains, oooozing in from NE AR.
So that's where the battle will be this weekend into next week. Will the cold air be deep enough to get over the mountains while we have moisture in the state or will it get hung up in the mountains, giving them a chance of winter weather while the rest of us get a cold rain?
The models are battling it out with the GFS in the camp that the cold air doesn't really get past the mountains, and the Euro while still keeping the idea that the mountains will hang up the cold air, does penetrate deeper into the south with some winter precipitation.
The type of winter precipitation that would fall, relies entirely on how deep the cold air is. It could be snow if the entire column of air is below freezing, or sleet if some warm air edges in between the surface and the upper levels, or freezing rain if the air mass is very shallow and surface temps are below freezing. Many variables are at play here. High pressure at the surface will try to push the cold air south, but in the upper levels, a southwest flow will keep the cold air from advancing too far south but could allow for some moisture to ride up and over the colder air at the surface.
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| Diagram from NWS Little Rock shows the different type of precipitation you can get with warm moist air riding up and over a cold air mass at the surface. |
Data from Weather Bell & NWS:
18Z GFS
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| 12 Noon on Sunday the GFS shows rain in the state but the rain/snow line (blue dashed line) is well west of AR. Surface temps in NW AR may be cold & they could see a little winter wx but the remainder of the state should see a cold rain |
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| No snow shown on the snowfall accumulation map with the freezing line to the NW of AR |
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| Temps forecast at noon on Sunday |
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| The freezing line is to the NW of AR |
18Z EURO
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| The Euro brings the freezing line across parts of Northern AR at the same time moisture is streaming up from the south. This could lead to an icing situation if the cold air isn't very deep |
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| Euro temps at noon on Sunday. Note the cold air in the NW while SE is still warm |
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| Not sure I buy this as the rain/snow line is north of AR but this is the snowfall accumulation map for noon on Sunday as forecast by the Euro. Don't take this as a forecast as if any winter wx does take place it would probably be in the form of freezing rain or sleet. |
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
We're Warming Up But Is Colder Weather Coming???
More frost...more cold this morning in AR. 10 days later and I still have some snow on the ground at my house. Who else has leftover snow?
If you look at the satellite and radar pics this morning you'll see clouds and rain/winter wx across Texas moving to the NE. The weather system responsible for rain/snow across Texas will move through AR tonight into Saturday bringing with it clouds and a few rain showers. As temps cool tonight and Saturday morning, some of the rain could mix with or change to a little light snow especially in the northern half of the state. Amounts would be very light as there is a lot of dry air in place and the amount of moisture available isn't that great.
If you look at the radar coming out of Texas, much of that in NE Texas isn't reaching the ground as there is dry air at the surface in place both over N Texas and Arkansas but there will be enough moisture to produce the precipitation mentioned above.
Afternoon highs today will range from the low to upper 40's with mid to upper 40's on Saturday and upper 40's to low 50's with more sunshine on Sunday.
The next weather system to affect us looks to be Wednesday although some models bring it in earlier. This system should bring us showers and thunderstorms and depending on the exact track of the low pressure center and timing, we'll have to watch for a few strong storms.
Models are still hinting at colder weather coming mid month into early Feb. The depth of the cold air and any winter weather has yet to be determined but it does look like we could see the coldest air of the season come down from the Arctic week after next. Stay tuned....
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| GFS temperature map for Jan 16 showing very cold air spilling into the United States |
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
More Winter Weather On The Way?
Both the 18z NAM & GFS are showing the 540 line (rain/snow) moving deeper into AR on Friday evening changing the rain to a rain/snow mix or light snow across parts of Central/NE AR as the moisture is moving out of the state. Not set in stone but did want to mention the possibility.
I will watch future model runs to see if it shows up again.
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| 18z NAM showing the 540 line at 6PM Friday |
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| 18z GFS showing the same thing with a possible change to light snow to the north of the line. |
The National Weather Service in NLR has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from midnight through 11:00 AM for about the northern half of Arkansas for light freezing rain/sleet/snow accumulations as a new weather system comes in from the SW. Rain should begin to fall tonight and as temperatures cool, some of the rain could transition to freezing rain/sleet and some snow. Accumulations are expected to remain light at this time but even small amounts can cause serious travel problems as bridges and overpasses could become slick along with some roadways.
The precipitation should change to rain as temps warm to above freezing late Friday morning into the afternoon.
Christmas Winter Wonderland
December 26, 2012
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| Snowfall amount in Sherwood |
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| Ice covered tree in Sherwood |
Some other reports I've seen this morning were 12" in Austin, 11" in Cabot, 14" in Hoxie, 9.5" in Conway, with many other areas reporting 10-12" with lesser amounts down south. The ice, heavy snow and wind knocked out power over a large part of AR making for a cold night. For the first time ever the NWS in Little Rock issued a Blizzard Warning for parts of NE AR.
At my house in Sherwood, I measured 8" with some 12" drifts.
Today it'll be much nicer than yesterday although cold with highs getting into the mid 30's so some melting on the roads will take place but will quickly refreeze tonight as we drop down into the teens and 20's.
Enjoy your day and take the opportunity to make some memories that you can share for a long time.
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| Snowfall totals from the NWS in N Little Rock |
BLIZZARD WARNING/WINTER STORM WARNING
12/25/2012
Update 8:08
The Storm Prediction Center says heavy snow falling at rates of 1-2" per hour are possible across parts of Central and NE AR in the next few hours along with gusty winds to 40 mph creating blizzard conditions.
Update 7:42 Heavy snow falling in Central AR with the heaviest band setting up over Faulkner County at 7:30. Reports of 4" in Hot Springs, 7" in Mena and Paris. 2" in WLR and snow continues to fall. It appears the snow will taper off from west to east across the state shortly after midnight with NE AR seeing snow all the way through Wednesday Morning with flurries possible in Central AR.
Here is the 18z NAM and GFS snowfall forecast. Both models paint some rather large totals so it will be interesting to see how they do when the totals come in:
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| 18z NAM |
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| 18Z GFS |
Update at 1:36 PM
Reports of snow along the western AR border as of 1:30. The timetable shown below may be moving up slightly...stay tuned...
Here is a picture of my car at 1:30 and has a 1/8" ice on it.
Freezing rain mixed with sleet and thunder and lightning has been the rule over much of the central and northern part of the state this Christmas Day with rain and thunderstorms in the south. Warmer air is moving up and over cold surface air and is creating some unstable conditions thus we are getting thundershowers. The cold air at the surface will continue to hold with stiff NE winds circulating around a low pressure center to our south. To our west the upper level low will be working towards Arkansas and this along with the surface low pulling down colder air will transition the rain/sleet to snow with some heavy accumulations. As the low pulls to our east it will deepen and gusty winds will be created some gusting as high as 45 mph in NE Arkansas.
Here are some maps from the 12z run of both the GFS and NAM showing somewhat of a timeline that we can use to determine the change over to snow. These are just models and this is subject to change based on the track of both systems:
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| 12Z GFS at noon. The 540 (rain/snow) line is well west of AR except for the far north with rain/sleet falling over the state. |
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| By 6PM the GFS brings the 540 (blue dashed line) line into western AR with snow falling to the west/north of that line |
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| At midnight snow is falling over much of AR with heavy snow in Central and NE AR |
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| By 6AM most of the snow if moving to the NE with some light snow showers possible in the west |
NAM
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| Noon picture looks similar to the GFS |
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| 6PM the 540 line is moving into Western AR |
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| NAM at midnight with heavy snow falling in Central AR |
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| 12 NAM at 3:00 AM showing heavy snow falling in NE/Central AR |
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| NAM simulated radar showing snow working into AR around 6-7PM |
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| By midnight the snow is falling over much of Central/NE AR and is slowly moving to the NE |
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| Warnings and advisories issued by the NWS for today/night |
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| Potential snowfall amounts. Some amounts could be higher locally especially in higher elevations |
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| Chance of seeing at least 4" of snow |
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| Chance of seeing greater than 8" of snow |
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
When's The Last Time We Had A Good Snow?
December 10, 2012
Looking at the spreadsheet below, you can see the months in which the NWS tracks snowfall accumulation. October through April.
When reading the sheet, note there is a difference in the annual amount vs. the seasonal amounts. This is because the seasonal amounts will count the last three months of a year and the first 4 months of the next.
Example: Oct, Nov, Dec of 2012 and Jan, Feb, Mar, April of 2013 will make up the winter of 2012-2013.
The annual amount counts only the months in that calendar year.
Looking at the first row, you can see that the winter of 1999-2000 had 7.5" of snow, but in 1999 itself, only a trace amount fell. That 7.5" in January is one snow that many people remember as it came in during the early afternoon and caused a huge traffic jam of people trying to get out of Little Rock.
This year has been a down year with only slightly more than a half an inch falling at the LR airport (back in February) but maybe we can add to it so before the year ends.
The winter of 2010-2011 was my type of winter !!!
These amounts are for the LR National Airport. Amounts could have been higher or lower in the metro.
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
One Year Ago
December 6, 2012
What a "Gray Day" today was. Clouds stuck around as moisture flowed into AR ahead of the next weather system to affect the state. That system is a cold front, forecast to move through on Sunday bringing a return to "December" like air. Afte
rnoon highs today topped out in the 50's and 60's. Tonight we'll drop down to the upper 40's and 50's with cloudy skies.
Friday should bring additional clouds but south winds ahead of the cold front should warm us up to the mid to upper 60's with small chances of rain starting to show up. The weekend looks gray as well with chances of showers and a few thunderstorms as the front finally makes it's move into the state late Sunday. Most of the moisture should be out of the state by the time the colder air moves in, but, there could be enough in NW AR late Sunday/early Monday to squeeze out a few flurries. I think the majority of any winter precip will stay to the N of AR but it is worth mentioning.
Cold weather will be with us Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 30's and 40's and lows generally in the 20's which is a little below normal as normal temps this time of year are in the mid 50's for the LR area.
One year ago tonight, an upper level low moved across the state and dumped 1-2" of snow in parts of the state. My house in Sherwood picked up around 1.5" mainly on grassy and exposed objects. It was fun to look at and I believe some schools closed in the Central AR area for that snowfall. The roads ended up clear. It was nice to look at though.
Friday should bring additional clouds but south winds ahead of the cold front should warm us up to the mid to upper 60's with small chances of rain starting to show up. The weekend looks gray as well with chances of showers and a few thunderstorms as the front finally makes it's move into the state late Sunday. Most of the moisture should be out of the state by the time the colder air moves in, but, there could be enough in NW AR late Sunday/early Monday to squeeze out a few flurries. I think the majority of any winter precip will stay to the N of AR but it is worth mentioning.
Cold weather will be with us Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 30's and 40's and lows generally in the 20's which is a little below normal as normal temps this time of year are in the mid 50's for the LR area.
One year ago tonight, an upper level low moved across the state and dumped 1-2" of snow in parts of the state. My house in Sherwood picked up around 1.5" mainly on grassy and exposed objects. It was fun to look at and I believe some schools closed in the Central AR area for that snowfall. The roads ended up clear. It was nice to look at though.
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Hello Meteorological Winter
Dec 1, 2012
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| Dec 1 visible satellite photo at 9 am |
I know whe
n it gets this warm in the winter people start worrying about severe weather. We could see some thunderstorms with this next front Monday night into Tuesday but the timing of the rainfall (late night/early morning) should keep most of the storms below severe limits.
Skies this morning are a mix of clouds and sun across AR. Expect temps to warm into the 70s over the next three days and possibly four as the air behind the frontal system isn't that cold (Pacific). Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning out ahead of the cold front, then on Tuesday afternoon as the front actually crosses the state, we could see a few more showers.
Here are some record highs from the NWS in NLR for the next three days. We could get close in some areas of the state.
Skies this morning are a mix of clouds and sun across AR. Expect temps to warm into the 70s over the next three days and possibly four as the air behind the frontal system isn't that cold (Pacific). Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning out ahead of the cold front, then on Tuesday afternoon as the front actually crosses the state, we could see a few more showers.
Here are some record highs from the NWS in NLR for the next three days. We could get close in some areas of the state.
If you're looking for cold, here is a forecast for parts of Eastern Alaska. The forecast for Delta Jct and Fairbanks is similar. I remember those days (I lived in Delta Jct which is about 90 miles south of Fairbanks and Valdez). We never go
t out of school for snow but did get out of school if the temp fell below -50.
When it got that cold the ice fog was so thick you couldn't see. I actually (not making this up) walked to school (and carried my lunch) in snow and temps in the -40 range.
I opened a can of Dr. Pepper inside our house and walked outside. Before I could drink it, it was frozen. That's cold. When living in Alaska the coldest temp we saw was -62 (actual air temp).
When we moved to Valdez, it didn't get as cold but it snowed like crazy and it was a heavy wet snow.
When it got that cold the ice fog was so thick you couldn't see. I actually (not making this up) walked to school (and carried my lunch) in snow and temps in the -40 range.
I opened a can of Dr. Pepper inside our house and walked outside. Before I could drink it, it was frozen. That's cold. When living in Alaska the coldest temp we saw was -62 (actual air temp).
When we moved to Valdez, it didn't get as cold but it snowed like crazy and it was a heavy wet snow.
Thanks for reading Ninja's Corner
Don't forget to listen to my forecast weekday mornings at 6:25-6:30am on 103.7fm The Buzz in Little Rock and follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/weatherninja or on facebook/weatherninja
And follow my live video stream during severe weather on KATV's interactive radar or at www.tornadovideos.net
Here are some December temperature and snowfall records for Little Rock courtesy of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. If you would like to look at the great climate book they have put together, click here: NWS Climate Book for LR/NLR (scroll down to the bottom of the page once on the NWS Climate Page to download the climate book)
Fall Colors in Northern Arkansas
November 10,2012
I went up to Northern Arkansas this morning to shoot some pictures of the fall colors on the Little Red River and Heber Springs area. Here are the pictures. They were shot along the river and at the JFK park near the dam. A few pictures of the mountains and countryside were shot in Cleburne county. Check out the eagle.
This is tribute to meteorologist Don Woods the creater of Gusty who passed away yesterday.
If you live in Arkansas back in the day, you know that gusty was drawn at the end of the weather cast on KATV. I was a huge fan, and even had gusty painted on the side of my storm chasing van back in the late 1970s. Ok..it wasn't actually a storm chasing van, but was a 60 something GMC van that I used to chase storms in.
Here is the official Gusty website: http://gusty.us/
Arkansas River pictures sent to my from David Bazzel.
2 comments:
Nice post Ninja! I missed the one snow we had, I was in Springdale. So let's get this snow thing going
Shack
Yes sir!!! A battle zone somewhere over the South should take place. My ice storm may come just a couple weeks too late! With the AO going negative and the polar air filtering in all we will need is a big L and some help from the G.O.M nad we will be in business!
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